Prediction Market

The expected shift around Iran ceasefire talks is toward pessimism, and the trading market shows that the ceasefire success rate set by Trump is only 3%. Iran rejected a short-term ceasefire proposal and put forward long-term political and economic conditions, further compressing the room for negotiations. Energy markets are strengthening in expectation, and the probability that WTI crude for April, which hit $120, rises to 77%. Crypto assets such as Bitcoin are under pressure during the phase when risk appetite declines, with capital flowing into traditional safe-haven assets.

American prediction market platform Kalshi made progress in its legal dispute with the state of New Jersey, as a court ruled that its contracts fall under federal regulation and are not gambling. The decision emphasized that the product meets the definition of a “swap transaction,” protecting Kalshi’s operations within the state. This case marks the first time a federal court has considered the legality of a prediction market, and increased attention will be paid to a unified regulatory framework going forward.

Polymarket reports that on April 7, in the match between MIBR and EYEBALLERS, an account bought roughly a $180k MIBR win position, which is currently slightly down. This event is a key matchup for PGL Bucharest 2026 and will affect qualification status.

On April 7, on the Predict platform, the FDV prediction market regarding Polymarket’s token launch day saw a sharp drop, with a 13% probability that FDV would be greater than $2 billion. Polymarket announced an upgrade to its trading engine and the launch of the stablecoin Polymarket USD, sparking controversy in the market over whether this would be considered a token issuance, which caused the probabilities for related events to fluctuate.

Bitcoin BTC$68,767.57 slid toward $68,000 on Tuesday, with traditional markets closed in Hong Kong for a long weekend, as repeated failures near $70,000 left the bitcoin market vulnerable to a break lower. The drop came after another failed push above $70,000, with prices slipping quickly once

Recently, on prediction market platform Polymarket, two accounts collectively staked $5,900, betting that the odds of the “United States obtaining Iran’s highly enriched uranium before June” are 81%. These two accounts have strong historical performance in Iran-related categories and chose to enter when the valuation was undervalued. According to reports, the U.S. military has proposed a plan to deploy ground forces to seize highly enriched uranium, but it faces legal constraints.

Research by independent on-chain analyst Andrey Sergeenkov shows that 84.1% of traders on Polymarket lose money, only 2% have profits over $1,000, and 0.033% reach $100k in profits. Of the 6,600 traders with monthly profits over $5,000, only 2.6% remain consistently active for more than a year. Most traders leave after trading for a while.

The prediction market platform Polymarket will undergo a full rebuild, launching a new collateral token, “Polymarket USD,” to replace the existing USDC.e, in order to enhance its control over the settlement layer and comply with regulatory requirements. The upgrade will affect users’ trading workflows: ordinary users can complete the conversion automatically, while advanced users must do it manually. This move is intended to strengthen management of market manipulation and to promote a shift toward compliance.

Polymarket’s prediction market platform will undergo a major upgrade in the coming weeks, including the launch of the V2 trading system, the native stablecoin Polymarket USD, and an optimized order book structure. The new system will improve matching efficiency, reduce Gas costs, and support smart contract wallets to participate in trading.

On April 7, on-chain data shows that during Polymarket’s NBA Blazers vs. Nuggets match prediction, an account bought a prediction for a Blazers win for $130k, earning nearly $4 million in profit. The Blazers are ranked 9th in the West, and the Nuggets are 4th. The game will take place at 9:00 PM Beijing time today.

In Polymarket’s NCAA finals, a single account lost nearly $5 million after buying $400k worth of Connecticut winning prediction shares, with an opening position average price of 49¢. NCAA “March Madness” is the U.S. college basketball tournament, which uses a single-elimination format.

Polymarket plans to launch a new USDC-backed collateral token, Polymarket USD, as part of a comprehensive platform upgrade. This move aims to enhance control over settlement and liquidity. The potential introduction of a POLY token for governance could further refine market integrity, following controversies in its current governance system.

Polymarket announcement: a major upgrade is planned in the next 2–3 weeks, including rebuilding the trading engine, introducing Polymarket USD, optimizing order-matching efficiency, and more. This upgrade is the largest scale since the platform launched, and it will improve trading efficiency while reducing users’ concerns about non-official assets.

An appeals court ruled Monday that New Jersey could not temporarily ban prediction market provider Kalshi, giving the platform a much-needed win against an onslaught of state enforcement actions. A Third Circuit Court of Appeals panel ruled in a 2-1 vote that the state could not bring an enforcemen

Sygnum Bank’s chief investment officer said the market is increasingly important in monitoring macro risks, especially during heightened conflict in Iran. Data show that the number of prediction market trades in March rose 2,838% year over year, and the professional trading team has incorporated it into its macro analysis framework to develop trading strategies.

This week, major prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi faced significant backlash, highlighting the divide between regulatory approval and public acceptance. Polymarket withdrew controversial betting markets after public outcry, while Kalshi's contract offerings were banned in Nevada, stressing the industry's legitimacy challenges.

Polymarket has become La Liga's official prediction market partner in the U.S. and Canada, gaining exclusive rights to use the league's intellectual property. This partnership aims to enhance fan engagement and comes amid ongoing regulatory scrutiny.

According to CryptoRank data, political-topic trading volume is the highest in the market during the first quarter of 2026, while sports-related trading makes up only a small portion. The top five assets by trading volume are all related to political events, indicating the market’s focus on political forecasting.

Polymarket removed a betting market on U.S. military rescues in Iran after backlash from lawmakers, who criticized it for trivializing such efforts. This reflects growing scrutiny and regulation of prediction markets amid concerns over ethics and integrity.