Macroeconomics

On April 2, the precious metals market pulled back. Gold fell to $4,682 per ounce, and silver fell to $72.79 per ounce. The crypto market volatility index edged down, while the U.S. dollar rose slightly against the Chinese yuan and the Japanese yen. Global stock indices showed mixed performance, with both WTI and Brent crude oil rising.

U.S. President Trump plans to announce that Iran’s military targets have been achieved, the war is nearing its end, and the U.S. and Iran are in talks to negotiate a ceasefire. This situation is boosting market sentiment and pushing Bitcoin higher. K33 Research shows that Bitcoin ETF shorts have reached a historical high, and the market structure indicates signs that a bottom may be forming, suggesting a possible near-term uptrend.

Market sentiment is rising despite a 25% decline, signaling early accumulation behavior. Macro factors like easing policy and weaker dollar support altcoin recovery potential. Infrastructure and narrative-driven tokens may lead the next market phase. The crypto market has plunged into a

The global credit market is shifting from traditional vertically integrated models to a horizontally modular architecture, with artificial intelligence and blockchain becoming key technologies. Artificial intelligence can improve underwriting efficiency and reduce risk, while blockchain redefines the settlement process, significantly lowering costs. In the future, platforms with competitive advantages will leverage these technologies, and traditional institutions that lack technical support will face profit challenges.

Gate News reports that on April 1, Tom Lee, chairman of the Ethereum treasury company Bitmine, stated on the X platform that, from the perspective of the major regional economic structure in the United States, high oil prices are not an absolute negative for the overall economy. Texas benefits from the energy industry, New York relies on public transportation to reduce sensitivity to oil price fluctuations, and Florida has relatively short commuting distances; these regions can, to some extent, buffer the impact of rising oil prices. Additionally, Tom Lee emphasized that the “crisis” itself contains both “danger and opportunity,” but most investors tend to focus only on risks and overlook potential opportunities.

Gate News reports that on April 1, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced crude oil inventories for the week ending March 27 at 5.451 million barrels, well above market expectations of 814,000 barrels, with the previous value at 6.926 million barrels.

Gate News reports that on April 1, the President of the St. Louis Fed, Mousalem, stated on Wednesday at an event hosted by the American Enterprise Institute in Washington that energy shocks related to the war with Iran will definitely impact overall inflation and may exert pressure on core prices. Mousalem said, "I expect increases in commodity prices to feed into overall inflation on a one-for-one basis, and there will be a period of high overall inflation." He added, "Core inflation will also be affected to some extent by pass-through; I will closely monitor the degree of pass-through and the correlation between the two."

Gate News report: On April 1, the final value of the U.S. March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index, measuring manufacturing activity) was 52.3, compared to the previous reading of 52.4.

The U.S. added 62,000 jobs in the private sector in March, with micro-sized businesses emerging as the main pillar, while mid- and large-sized firms saw an employment decline. Wage growth was notable, with pay jump-hoppers up 6.6% year over year. Overall, the job market remains resilient, indicating structural shifts and intensifying competition for talent, but inflation impacts should be watched for.

Gate News message: On April 1, JPMorgan Chase lowered its S&P 500 Index (the U.S. stock market benchmark) target from 7,500 points to 7,200 points, mainly due to heightened recession risk.

Gate News message: On April 1, the U.S. recorded a 0.6% month-over-month retail sales growth rate for February, exceeding the market expectation of 0.5%, reaching a new high in over six months.

Richmond Fed President Barkin said that high oil prices are viewed as a short-term disruption and that there is no sign of a noticeable reduction in consumer spending. He added that rate hikes may need to be strengthened if inflation expectations rise, and there is currently no indication of that; rate cuts depend on inflation easing or the labor market weakening.

Gate News update: On April 1, U.S. ADP (Automatic Data Processing, a U.S. private-sector employment data provider) reported that employment increased by 62,000 in March, above the market expectation of 40,000, and roughly flat compared with last month’s 63,000.

The US 10-Year Treasury Yield has fallen nearly 4.95% over the past five days, while the US 20-Year Treasury Yield declined by around 3.72%. This marks a sharp reversal from recent highs, as yields had climbed earlier due to inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions. The trend has now flipped,

U.S. mortgage rates have risen for four straight weeks, reaching the highest level since last August, dampening refinancing and home-buying activity. The 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.57%, and both the home purchase application index and the refinancing index declined. Inflation concerns have driven rates higher, as the low borrowing-cost effects seen earlier in the year have faded.

Gate News update: On April 1, the U.S. will release its March ADP employment report tonight at 20:15 (known as “the little nonfarm,” a leading indicator for nonfarm employment data), followed by the release of the U.S. February retail sales month-over-month rate (known as “terrible data,” reflecting the strength or weakness of the consumer market). The market will get the latest data on the U.S. labor market and consumer market, and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path may change accordingly.

March 31 saw a sharp jump in the three major U.S. stock indexes, with the Dow surging by more than 1,125 points and posting its best single-day performance. However, the S&P 500 fell 5.09% for the month of March, the worst performance since 2022, and market confidence remained weak. The VIX volatility index stayed elevated, suggesting investors are still on high alert. Soaring oil prices weighed on Asian markets; in March, capital outflows totaled $52 billion, with Taiwan hit the hardest. As the April earnings reporting season approaches, the market’s outlook remains unclear.

On April 1, 2026, Trump’s remarks about withdrawing troops triggered a sharp sell-off in the crude oil market, and oil prices quickly fell. This shift not only affects the energy market, but also changes the pricing of global broad asset classes. The decline in crude oil has a dual impact on the liquidity environment in the crypto market and on mining costs; the market has begun to reassess the relationship between geopolitical risk and crypto assets. In the future, the market will be constrained by multiple structural risks, and industry competitiveness may shift toward improving technology and compliance capabilities.

Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market rebounded on Wednesday after the United Arab Emirates urged the United Nations to use force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns about a war with Iran. The market reacted positively to signs of de-escalation and the U.S. troop withdrawal plan, with the price of Bitcoin rising by more than 1%.

Bitcoin fell 23.8% in the first quarter of 2026, marking its worst performance since 2018. The decline was mainly driven by outflows from spot ETF fund flows and high inflation. Despite the near-term drop, analysts say long-term conviction in Bitcoin has not changed, and it’s important to watch shifts in the macro environment and incoming capital flows.