Geopolitics

Gate News message, April 3—affected by the Middle East conflict, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has recently suffered severe disruptions, and global shipping costs have surged sharply. War-risk insurance premiums for vessels are rising rapidly, and industry insiders say freight rates have currently increased by 11 to 12 times. Insurance costs and detour costs are being passed on layer by layer, continuously impacting global trade and supply-chain security.

This week, due to Trump’s tough remarks targeting Iran, gold prices fell, with spot gold and futures down 2% and 2.5%, respectively. Rising oil prices boosted inflation expectations, reducing gold’s appeal. In addition, the entire precious metals complex faced pressure: UBS cut its gold price outlook, so investors need to watch how the situation in the Middle East and market volatility affect prices.

The People Power Party of South Korea has introduced a new bill, calling for the repeal of the cryptocurrency trading tax that is set to take effect in 2027, aiming to win support from younger voters and affect the value of votes. Analysts believe it may simply be a political strategy, and the actual impact is unclear; in the future, the bill could be postponed or amended again.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) report warns that tokenized finance poses four major risks, including exacerbating market fragmentation, increasing financial stability risks, conflicts in cross-border settlement, and challenges for emerging economies. The IMF recommends implementing policies such as secure money anchoring and unified regulation to address these risks, and notes that the tokenized finance market is growing rapidly.

In April 2026, Trump admitted that strikes had been launched against Iranian infrastructure, causing market sentiment to weaken and pulling the price of Bitcoin back to $66,300. Rising geopolitical risk caused financial markets to diverge; Asian stocks rebounded, while crypto assets came under pressure. If the situation deteriorates, Bitcoin’s support level at $65,000 would trigger technical selling. Market drivers shifted toward geopolitics, and in the short term Bitcoin is unlikely to shake off the impact of macro shocks.

In 2026, tensions in the Middle East led Americans to face an economic burden, with the cost of military operations ranging from $30 billion to $45 billion, increasing spending by about $2.5 to $3.8 per person per day. Oil prices rose due to the conflict, driving up household fuel and living costs, intensifying inflation pressure, and affecting interest rates and financial markets, which could trigger greater risks.

With expectations of a easing in the Middle East situation, Asian stock markets moved higher across the board, and falling oil prices eased market tensions. Despite pressure on crypto-related stocks on trading platforms, Bitcoin mining stocks performed strongly, indicating a trend of capital being reallocated. The market remains cautious about geopolitical developments and the outlook will be shaped by multiple factors.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf is strengthening communication with U.S. audiences on social media, using fluid English to address economic and energy topics and demonstrating a targeted dissemination strategy. His messaging is closely tied to Western media coverage, underscoring the importance of information warfare in geopolitical games, and it could directly affect market sentiment and asset prices.

Global oil markets are becoming increasingly divided. The spread between Brent crude spot and futures prices has widened to $34, and physical oil prices have risen to $141.37—the highest level since 2008—indicating supply tightness. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has affected tanker shipping, reducing daily output and causing spot premiums to rise, with market sentiment and expected volatility strengthening. Increased policy uncertainty has amplified market turmoil, and future price direction depends on developments in the Middle East.

Tom Zschach, SWIFT's chief innovation officer, resigns, citing a "trust gap" in financial tech that hinders AI and asset tokenization. He plans to work with scientists and entrepreneurs to address these issues.

Recent reports suggest that Satoshi Nakamoto's dormant Bitcoin wallets may attract hackers, raising concerns about the catastrophic economic impact if quantum hacking occurs. With 1.1 million BTC at stake, the cryptocurrency community faces challenges in making the Bitcoin network quantum-proof and managing these coins.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that tokenized finance is reshaping global markets, but its automated and real-time settlement features could trigger systemic risks. The market value of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) has already exceeded $27.5 billion, driven primarily by U.S. Treasury bonds. The IMF is concerned that automation could amplify market turbulence, and notes that competition from stablecoins, CBDCs, and so on may lead to fragmentation of the financial system, requiring a reassessment of the regulatory framework to balance innovation and stability.

Riot Platforms sold 3,778 bitcoins in the first quarter, at an average price of $76,626, generating roughly $289.5 million in revenue, and retained 15,680 bitcoins. Miners were forced to dump coins due to rising energy costs and faced the impact of higher oil prices and increasing mining difficulty, which created structural selling pressure in the market, drove industry consolidation, and benefited larger miners with greater cost efficiency.

Crude oil rose to over $100 a barrel while Bitcoin fell 2% after a national address by US President Donald Trump on the conflict in Iran, where he vowed to hit Iran "extremely hard" over the next few weeks.  Speaking at the White House on Wednesday during an address to the nation, Trump said the US

An American court ruled to forfeit more than $600,000 in USDT, stemming from a physical letter phishing scam targeting Ledger users. After receiving the disguised letter, the victims leaked their seed phrases, and their funds were stolen. The scammers tried to conceal the funds through multiple transfers and conversion methods, but the transparency of the blockchain helped the police track the path of the fund movements. They then successfully recovered the funds through a civil forfeiture proceeding.

The Arizona House Rules Committee unanimously passed the SB1649 bill, establishing a Digital Assets Strategic Reserve Fund that puts digital assets such as XRP under the management of the Department of the Treasury, and allows revenue to be generated through methods such as staking. If the bill passes, it will become the first U.S. state to officially recognize XRP as a fiscal reserve asset. XRP is currently trading at $1.28 and faces challenges from technical support and resistance.

Bitcoin (BTC) gives back this week’s gains, temporarily trading at around $66,780 on April 3. Bitcoin miner MARA cut 15% of its workforce, shifting its strategy toward energy and digital infrastructure. Blockchain analytics firm Elliptic says North Korean hackers may exploit a vulnerability in the Drift Protocol to profit $286 million.

The President of the United States, Donald Trump, appointed Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche as Acting Attorney General, and dissolved the National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team, issuing a memorandum to halt regulatory enforcement against the crypto industry. When Blanche signed this memorandum, he still held crypto assets, which allegedly violated ethical standards and sparked legal disputes; whether transferring his assets into his family’s name can eliminate the conflict of interest remains controversial.

Goolsbee said that with the economy impacted by the shock from oil prices and inflation not yet having eased, rising oil prices could further worsen inflation expectations, bringing greater difficulties and slowing hiring. Companies are facing uncertainty.