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The last time a new team reached the knockout stage was Slovakia in 2010, but what are the chances of one of the four 2026 debutants doing the same?
Unfortunately, Cape Verde and Curaçao are expected to struggle.
Cape Verde made the knockout stage in just 33.9% of the sims (the fourth-lowest rate of any team), with Curaçao’s chance being even lower at 18.5% (the second-lowest, only above Haiti’s 15.9%).
The supercomputer is a bit kinder to Uzbekistan (0.1%) and Jordan (0.1%), but both teams will still be doing well to get out of their groups. Their chances are 41.4% and 40.8% respectively.
Els

We have mentioned the teams in the top 24, but what of the sides who feature in the bottom half of our projections?
The first takeaway is we should rule little out. For example, Australia won the World Cup 28 times in our pre-tournament sims and Scotland prevailed on 22 occasions – so fans have permission to dream.
In a five-week knockout competition there is massive variance. Just one shock exit from a tournament favourite can cause other dominos to fall and the draw can suddenly open up for an unexpected team to challenge.
With that in mind, there are not many outcomes which can be completel

Mexico, who will play South Africa in the opening game at Estadio Azteca, also fare reasonably well in our sims. They are given a 47.8% chance of topping Group A, which also contains South Korea and Czechia.
They are more likely than not (52.0%) to get as far as the last 16 and have a healthy 24.2% chance of making the last eight.
But Mexico are given only a 1.0% chance of victory, putting them behind fellow co-hosts United States, Japan and Ecuador, and level with Senegal.

The Opta supercomputer is reasonably positive about the chances of the three co-host nations, suggesting all of them are likely to produce solid – albeit not necessarily spectacular – tournaments.
France became the sixth team to win as hosts in 1998, but no side has accomplished the feat since then.
If there is to be a shock host success, then our model is most optimistic about USA.
Given they are playing in the tournament’s most competitive pool, Mauricio Pochettino needs his team to start strongly. They are narrow favourites (32.8%) to top Group D, with their opponents being Paraguay, Türkiy

a lofty eighth in the FIFA world rankings.
The supercomputer expects Morocco to pose a real threat and their opener against Brazil on 13 June is perhaps the standout fixture in the first week of the tournament.
There are two other potentially pivotal group clashes to circle on your calendar by the time we reach MD3, as France take on Norway in Foxborough on 26 June, while Colombia battle Portugal in Miami a day later.

Remarkably, Haaland’s total did not include a single penalty, and it featured a record five-goal haul in Norway’s 11-1 home win against Moldova.
Arsenal’s Martin Ødegaard had seven assists, four of which were for Haaland, and all eyes will be on how those two Premier League stars fare in their first World Cup.
An interesting counter example is Belgium. They are deemed likelier than Netherlands and Norway to top their pool given they take on Egypt, Iran and New Zealand in a weaker Group G, but then are less likely to win outright at 2.4%.
It’s not a big surprise to see leading European nations

Netherlands (3.6%) and Norway (3.5%) rank highest in terms of possible World Cup winners. The issue for both is they will first have to negotiate their way through difficult groups and, if they don’t finish top in the initial stage, that could hinder them with a tougher path to the final.
For example, if Netherlands finish second in Group F – not inconceivable as they face decent opposition in Japan, Sweden and Tunisia – they would then have to play the winners of Group C – most likely Brazil – in the round of 32.
However, if Netherlands and Norway do reach the last 16, they are then seen as e

In the next group of World Cup contenders, we have Portugal (7.0%), Brazil (6.6%) and Germany (5.1%).
All three teams have a chance greater than 5% of winning the tournament, and of at least 10% to reach the final. The trio are closely matched and have regularly traded ranking positions leading up to the summer.
Despite sitting a little below the top four nations, these sides are also contenders. If any of them capture form and momentum at the right time, they will prove tough to stop.
Portugal are fifth favourites to triumph, as Cristiano Ronaldo seeks the one honour still missing from his tr

was Argentina’s fierce rivals Brazil, way back in 1962.
More heroics from talisman Messi are likely needed to get Argentina over the line again.
Messi produced one of the greatest individual World Cup campaigns in Qatar, scoring seven goals and assisting three, while becoming the first player to ever net in the group stage, last 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals and final of a single edition.

After feeling able to leave out the likes of Cole Palmer, Morgan Gibbs-White and Phil Foden, Thomas Tuchel is clearly confident in the array of creative options he has in his squad.
Harry Kane shouldn’t be short of service and Tuchel will be buoyed by the fact his captain is coming off a sensational campaign with Bayern Munich that saw him win the European Golden Shoe award.
A rampant Kane scored an astonishing 61 club goals across all competitions (64 if you also include the Club World Cup) and finished the season in fine style with two consecutive hat-tricks.
The striker is already the recor

According to the Opta supercomputer, there are six other teams who should go into the tournament with strong hopes of going all the way.
Within that sextet, three teams are seen as the biggest challengers to Spain and three others, while very much in the mix, might need a little more good fortune to go their way if they are to emerge triumphant.
Coming closest to Spain in the pre-tournament predictions are France (13.0%), who have contested the last two finals, long-suffering England (11.2%) and defending champions Argentina (10.4%)

Group E:
1. Germany
2. Ecuador
3. Ivory Coast
4. Curacao
Very interesting group, and it’s a bit harder to predict than we think. This German team is not as good as Euro 2024 Germany, but besides that, I do think they’re the best they’ve been since winning in 2014. Nagelsmann has done well with them as coach and they have good players. Mainly just weak in the full backs area, but I think they still top the group and will bag in a lot of goals. Ecuador vs Ivory Coast will be tough as both teams have been improving. I fancy Ecuador to edge it for second, because they’ve been improving a lot and f

Group F:
1. Japan
2. Sweden
3. Netherlands
4. Tunisia
I’m being very bold here too. I honestly think this Japanese team is within Top 10 in the world. They’re very smart tactically and have even improved from last World Cup. Extremely physical, fast, and tactical team. And Sweden since Potter took over as coach have really improved. Not to mention, Sweden was missing multiple key players in their playoff route. Pretty decent tactically. Now I say the Netherlands is extremely overrated. They have some talented players, but not all of them are in form, and I have really strong doubts about Koema

Group I:
1. France
2. Senegal
3. Norway
4. Iraq
Oh wow this group will be so fun and interesting to watch. Honestly I have a hard time looking past France. I think they’re the best team in this whole tournament and the depth and bench they have is just enormous. Many of their bench players would start on most others teams in this tournament. Norway vs Senegal will be very interesting. Norway has a really good attack and Senegal has a really good defense so it’ll be interesting to see. I think Senegal slightly edges it as arguably the second best team in Africa, and Norway third. Iraq under Arn

It's a very hot take, even if the US hasn't been in great form.
Here's the thing about the US group. While many US fans were celebrating it , I cautioned that it was much more difficult than it appeared.
It's a double edged sword. While there are no really good teams in the group, there also are really no weak ones either. Most groups have a "guaranteed 3 points" game. This one doesn't.
I find this group to be the most even group from top to bottom, so every match will be a real battle and anything can happen.
I still fancy the US to top this group, but them topping it and finishing last reall

The teams in their Group are not horrible but two of them have not even played in the World Cup in Multiple cycles. And Australia does not really do great in comparison to other AFC teams like Japan or even Korea.
Also, I have emphasized this before but the USA usually struggles in official matches at home when opposing teams bring raucous and fanatical crowds that intimidate them in their very home stadiums.
This is the rare time that they will have 60-70,000 fans hyped up to cheer them on to victory. The teams in their Groups just really don’t travel well or have big popularity in the USA. I

Very true, it is for sure a very tough group to predict. My real concerns about the USA is that they’re very disorganized and quite liable defensively. On paper Pochettino was supposed to be an upgrade from Greg Berhalter, but that doesn’t seem to turn out to be the case on the field so far at least. One of their biggest strengths in the last World Cup was fairly solid and organized defensively, and they’ve lost that under Pochettino. While I’m unsure what the problem is, I think Pochettino’s tactics and approach might be too advanced for the national team to grasp very well.
And I think they

Wait what in regards to Australia? In the last World Cup, Australia was the second best AFC team after Japan, and I believe they still are and have even improved from last World Cup.
To be fair in the 2010, 2014, and 2018 world cups, they did have really tough groups, with some very good teams. I wouldn’t underestimate Australia at all. I think they’re second best team in Asia after Japan. South Korea might have a stronger team on paper, but Australia play better and are managed way better right now at least.

usa might well finnish last
canada-qatar will be great, two worst teams of 2022 fighting for the third place and potential knockouts four years later!
germany-curacao will be the quest for double digit score, looking forward to that.
apart from that, congo-usbekistan will highly likely be the least sought game, parallel to the most expensive por-col matchup, but it might end being much more interesting battle for the third spot while the other game might become player resting festival
and in the end, brazil games might be pain to watch

Group L:
1. England
2. Croatia
3. Ghana
4. Panama
This will be interesting. England have really improved on the field since Tuchel took over from Southgate and play more attacking and are scoring more goals. Croatia has really gotten things back together since Euro 2024, although not quite as strong as World Cup 2022 but close. However Croatia has probably the best mental strength and management of any team in this whole tournament. Honestly I can foresee a very cautious tactical opening game between England & Croatia as neither will want to lose the opening match. Very likely ends in a draw.