We have mentioned the teams in the top 24, but what of the sides who feature in the bottom half of our projections?

The first takeaway is we should rule little out. For example, Australia won the World Cup 28 times in our pre-tournament sims and Scotland prevailed on 22 occasions – so fans have permission to dream.

In a five-week knockout competition there is massive variance. Just one shock exit from a tournament favourite can cause other dominos to fall and the draw can suddenly open up for an unexpected team to challenge.

With that in mind, there are not many outcomes which can be completely dismissed. But there is one scenario our supercomputer is willing to rule out, as the only team who never won the tournament in any of our 25,000 simulations was Curaçao. So, yes, Haiti unbelievably won the 2026 World Cup once in our 25,000 simulations.

While 47 countries won the tournament at least once in our sims overall, for the teams rated 25-48, a successful tournament would realistically constitute emerging from their groups.