Mexico, who will play South Africa in the opening game at Estadio Azteca, also fare reasonably well in our sims. They are given a 47.8% chance of topping Group A, which also contains South Korea and Czechia.

They are more likely than not (52.0%) to get as far as the last 16 and have a healthy 24.2% chance of making the last eight.

But Mexico are given only a 1.0% chance of victory, putting them behind fellow co-hosts United States, Japan and Ecuador, and level with Senegal.