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The last time a new team reached the knockout stage was Slovakia in 2010, but what are the chances of one of the four 2026 debutants doing the same?
Unfortunately, Cape Verde and Curaçao are expected to struggle.
Cape Verde made the knockout stage in just 33.9% of the sims (the fourth-lowest rate of any team), with Curaçao’s chance being even lower at 18.5% (the second-lowest, only above Haiti’s 15.9%).
The supercomputer is a bit kinder to Uzbekistan (0.1%) and Jordan (0.1%), but both teams will still be doing well to get out of their groups. Their chances are 41.4% and 40.8% respectively.
Elsewhere, the presence of departing Liverpool great Mohamed Salah means Egypt (0.4%) are among the biggest threats from the bottom half of our projections. They have a 30.6% chance of getting into the last 16.