Bitcoin vs. gold: Data shows BTC is a "better opportunity" compared to 2017

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen to an all-time low compared to gold (XAU) in January. According to some analysts, this is creating a more attractive buying opportunity than the period just before the 2015–2017 growth cycle.

The shift from gold to Bitcoin may begin in February

Bitwise Europe data shows that on Saturday, the Bitcoin-to-gold value ratio dropped to its lowest level in history after adjusting for global money supply.

This indicator is used to identify when Bitcoin becomes “too strong” or “too weak” compared to gold. Currently, the indicator is approaching an extreme zone (the -2 mark on the chart), which in the past has often appeared around significant Bitcoin lows.

BTC/XAU Ratio | Source: Bitwise The last time this indicator reached a similar zone was in 2015, when BTC was significantly undervalued compared to gold. Subsequently, Bitcoin increased by about 11,800%, from around $165 to $20,000 in just two years. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe wrote on X.

“Currently, buying Bitcoin is a better opportunity than in 2017.”

This view aligns with many experts’ opinions that this year could see a partial shift of capital from gold to Bitcoin. André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, and Pav Hundal, chief analyst at Swyftx, both mention this scenario; Hundal believes the rotation process could start in February or March.

Capital rotation “may not happen quickly”

An optimistic argument is made in the context of gold prices doubling in a year, while Bitcoin declined about 18% during the same period.

XAU/USD and BTC/USD Comparison | Source: TradingView However, not everyone believes that capital will soon leave precious metals for Bitcoin. Analyst Benjamin Cowen suggests that Bitcoin’s weakening trend could last longer than expected, and he also states that Bitcoin “is likely to continue to decline relatively compared to the stock market.” According to him, the expectation of a “large rotation wave” out of gold and silver may not be suitable in the short term.

Conversely, Citi predicts silver could continue to rise over the next few months due to demand from China and a weakening US dollar. RBC Capital Markets also forecasts gold could reach $7,000 by the end of 2026.

Cowen emphasizes that even if the precious metal maintains strength, capital flow into Bitcoin “may not” happen quickly.

Long-term Bitcoin holders have absorbed the January sell-off

Despite the sharp correction in January, on-chain data shows that long-term investors are gradually re-accumulating.

Specifically, the amount of BTC held by long-term holders (LTH)—entities holding Bitcoin for over 155 days—began to recover during the sell-off phase.

Additionally, the LTH Spent Binary index (reflecting whether LTHs are selling or holding) continues to decline, indicating that selling pressure from long-term investors is weakening.

According to analyst Anil, in previous cycles, the recovery of LTH supply along with a decrease in LTH Spent Binary has often been an early signal that the market is forming a sustainable bottom.

The most recent example is after the April 2025 bottom: LTH-held supply increased again beforehand, and about a month later, Bitcoin surged strongly, recovering about 60% from the bottom.

These signals collectively suggest that patient investors are taking advantage of the January dip to increase their positions—a form of “rebalancing” that often helps Bitcoin strengthen its base and set the stage for future growth.