BlockBeats News, December 5 — The US will release September PCE inflation data tonight. As the Fed’s most closely watched price indicator, this result will directly impact the December interest rate decision. Currently, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut remains at 87%. The market expects the core PCE year-over-year growth rate to be around 2.8%, slightly above the target but continuing the cooling trend. If the data comes in below expectations, it will reinforce the market narrative of a “soft landing” and the formation of an easing cycle. On the macro side, yesterday’s weaker ADP employment data has made the market more sensitive to this inflation result. Results in line with or below expectations will weigh on the US dollar and support risk assets; if above expectations, renewed sticky inflation could push up US Treasury yields, weaken rate-cut expectations, and trigger short-term capital flight from high-volatility assets. Overall sentiment is cautious, with liquidity on hold pending event outcomes before new positioning. The crypto market continues its choppy pattern, with BTC trading around $92,000. In the short term, the PCE reaction is expected to drive 3–5% volatility. The upper resistance is at $93,800–95,400; if the data is dovish, a quick test of these levels is likely. If the data is hawkish, the support zones at $90,700 and $89,000 will face pressure testing. Technically, the outlook is neutral to slightly weak, with futures buying dominant and spot demand still limited. Bitunix analysts: Before the PCE is released, the market has entered a compressed volatility, wait-and-see structure, with the BTC long-short core battleground concentrated in the $91,000–95,000 range. If the data confirms continued inflation decline, it will increase the probability of a year-end rebound; otherwise, the choppiness will persist, and capital flows will shift back toward defensive and short-term allocations.
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