U.S. core CPI rose 2.7% year-over-year in June, below the 2.8% consensus estimate and down from 2.9% previously. Headline CPI fell 0.1% month-over-month — the first negative monthly reading since 2020 — with the annual rate dropping from 4.2% to 3.8%, largely driven by lower energy prices. Core services inflation remained sticky, with housing and auto insurance costs staying elevated — keeping core inflation well above the Fed's 2% target. Following the data, Fed rate hike odds for July eased from ~50%, Treasury yields dipped, and markets continue to debate the rate-cut timeline.


















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