𝗖𝗣𝗜 𝗙𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁. 𝗪𝗮𝗿𝘀𝗵 𝗦𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱. 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗔𝗿𝗲 𝗪𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗠𝗶𝗻𝘂𝘁𝗲.

This week's biggest macro event comes down to a 90-minute window. The June CPI report will be released just before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first congressional testimony.

Markets are split on the Fed's next move. Cooling energy prices support a wait-and-see approach, while sticky inflation could keep another rate hike on the table. Swaps still price in around 32 bps of tightening by year-end, while prediction markets estimate roughly a 54% chance of another hike.

If CPI comes in softer and Warsh strikes a dovish tone, risk assets like crypto could benefit. A hotter-than-expected inflation reading combined with hawkish comments may strengthen the U.S. dollar, lift Treasury yields, and pressure both equities and digital assets.

First comes the inflation data. Then comes the Fed's reaction. Together, they'll likely set the market's next direction.

#WarshTestimonyMeetsCPI