AChengETH

4/21 ETH Short-term Outlook (Concise Anti-Replication Version):
Market Positioning
4H rebounded from around 2058, currently consolidating around 2300, indicating a weak correction after a decline, with resistance in the 2350–2400 zone not broken.
Indicator Quick Scan
· Bollinger Bands: Middle band 2327, upper band 2396, lower band 2259. Price is stuck between the middle and lower bands, leaning towards oscillation.
· MACD: DIF just crossed above DEA, with initial red bars appearing, limited bullish strength, clearly a correction.
· KDJ: J value is near 80, further upward movement may trigger a

The script of the Hormuz incident has changed.
Before: Iran was going crazy, locking down the sea with chains, and going down together.
Now: they’re not locking it anymore; they’ve switched to collecting passage tolls.
The original line was “priceless gold assets rooted in Iran’s geographical location.” You can’t carve this piece of land out of the map, so a QR code has to be pasted onto the captain’s window glass. Collecting tolls on the highway—what they’re collecting here is the floating premium of global oil prices.
The U.S. tone has shifted too.
In the past, they’d stand with hands on hip

The fluctuating situation between the US and Iran is essentially a game of drawing lines based on news:
As soon as Trump releases a hint of negotiation easing, the market immediately reacts, sentiment quickly turns optimistic, safe-haven demand rapidly subsides, buying interest enters the market, and the trend is gently pushed upward. Just as the bulls start to enjoy some gains and their positions pile up with the trend, Iran suddenly acts to create conflict, triggering a quick response, the market sharply reverses and plunges, panic spreads, and the bulls are instantly suppressed, while the b

4.20 Bitcoin / Altcoin
Bitcoin current situation: Price around 73,600 has rebounded from a low and is now flat. The daily bullish structure remains intact but momentum is waning, which is a normal correction. Support zones at 73,500-73,000 hold, and as long as they do not break, the bullish trend persists. The short-term strong resistance is at 76,000.
Short cycle: 4H is in a sideways correction, 1H is consolidating and gathering strength. Only above 74,800 can there be further rebound space; breaking below 73,600 suggests a move down to 73,000.
Bitcoin strategy (mainly shorting high, supporti

The Iran-U.S. weekend negotiations are imminent, and the market has already priced in expectations.
BTC 74,500 / ETH 2,320 are under pressure; panic preemptive moves are not pessimistic about the negotiations but are insurance against uncertainty. Looking at the previous round's attitude, this round's focus is on the final stance—while the Strait issue remains unchanged, both sides' bottom lines are becoming clearer, and the probability of an agreement is already being priced in.
Key levels
· BTC: Strong resistance at 75,500, the dividing line between bulls and bears at 73,200, sentiment pivot

Many people, when they first step into the crypto market, are firmly captivated by the narrative of multiplying wealth dozens of times, hearing stories of others turning their lives around. However, reality is often sharper: the vast majority of retail accounts hover for a long time between a few thousand to tens of thousands of dollars, not because they lack intelligence or intuition, but because they instinctively resist a nearly clumsy discipline.
The ultimate criterion for market judgment has never been trading frequency or flashy skills, but who possesses stronger resilience to survive.
U

[April 16] BTC/ETH Market Analysis and Short-term Strategy Reference
Bitcoin (BTC) Technical Review and Ideas:
The daily chart is anchored around the 74,800 area, with a clear resistance at the 75,000 integer level above, which was not effectively overtaken by the bulls yesterday. This resistance remains strong. On the downside, the 73,800 to 73,000 range forms a short-term support zone, with signs of stabilization appearing after a pullback to the first support during yesterday’s session. Switching to the 4-hour structure, the price has launched a second assault on 76,000 but was met with sel

In the field of digital currency trading, many participants often fall into a typical behavioral bias: before clear trend signals appear, they repeatedly and frequently act. They become anxious after three days of sideways movement, rush to buy during occasional strong upward moves, panic-sell during pullbacks, and ultimately exhaust their capital before the real market trend begins. After years of market experience, I have summarized the following six concise and practical principles, which may effectively improve trading decision quality.
1. Avoid chasing after high-level consolidation; do n