Downside risk remains as bitcoin nears record-tying six-month losing streak

Bitcoin BTC$66,891.72 is on track to match a joint record of six consecutive monthly losses, set only once between August 2018 and January 2019, according to Coinglass data.

Currently at $66,600, BTC would need to rally a bit more than 1% over the next 15 hours to close above the $67,300 level at which it started the month.

According to Coinglass data, bitcoin fell 4% in October, 18% in November, and 3% in December. The downtrend continued into 2026, with a 10% drop in January, 15% in February, and March currently down about 1%.

The last time bitcoin recorded six consecutive down months was between August 2018 and January 2019. That period was followed by five consecutive months of gains, offering bitcoin bulls a modest historical precedent for a potential recovery.

Downside risks remain

Unlike that 2019 experience, however, the technicals and the macro situation suggest the pressure could continue.

Bitcoin remains above key long-term support levels, including its 200-week moving average at $59,268 and its realized price — the average on-chain cost basis — at $54,177, according to Glassnode data. In previous bear markets, bitcoin has typically fallen below both levels and remained there for a sustained period.

200WMA + realized Price (Glassnode)

Macro conditions also remain a headwind. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has kept oil prices above $100 per barrel for over a month, complicating central bank policy decisions around rate cuts or further tightening. At the same time, renewed concerns around quantum computing risks have added another layer of uncertainty.

One potential bright spot is that bitcoin has edged slightly higher since the onset of the Middle East conflict, suggesting some resilience despite the broader risk-off environment.