Bitcoin

Today, using the framework of "trends and cycles," I will help you see through the fog and engage in a cold reflection on Bitcoin's "pullback moment." First, let's begin by understanding the fundamental concepts of "trends" and "cycles."

With the BTC halving approaching, which will have a greater impact on future Bitcoin trends — mining or staking? This article provides an in-depth analysis of their respective market influences.

This article explores the concept of intrinsic value, examining its subjectivity and relativity in traditional finance. It argues that all value is subjective, shaped by personal perception, preferences, and needs. Bitcoin’s value, likewise, stems from its utility—such as fixed supply, digital nature, self-clearing capability, and private key control.

IBIT is the iShares Bitcoin Trust launched by BlackRock. Backed by a powerful brand reputation, precise market timing, and a low-fee structure, it quickly became the world’s most capital-attracting Bitcoin spot ETF within just one year of launch. This article offers an in-depth look at how IBIT works, the factors that influence its pricing, how it compares with directly holding Bitcoin, and analyzes its capital inflows, long-term value, and investment prospects. It aims to help investors better understand IBIT’s role in institutionalized crypto investing and its future development trends.

This article explores the impact of ETF futures products on the market, covering their key features, critical points for investors to consider, potential risks, and future development trends. We will analyze how futures ETFs affect market liquidity and price volatility, the fees, roll-over costs, and regulatory factors investors need to be aware of when participating, and the role they may play in institutional investment, market maturity, and changes in the regulatory environment.

This article introduces the development history, operating mechanism, advantages, and risks of MicroStrategy, and analyzes the key variables that could potentially lead to its collapse. It also compares similar companies and explores MicroStrategy’s future development trends.

The crypto bull run in 2020/2021 has similarities and differences with that of 2024/2025. What are the similarities and differences?

This article responds to Michael Saylor’s views to explore the practical importance of Bitcoin, emphasizing the primacy of its role as a medium of exchange.

If MicroStrategy is forced to sell its 520,000 bitcoins, it may trigger a chain reaction in the market. This article provides a detailed explanation of its financial pressure, selling scenarios, and the potential impact on the crypto market, revealing key risks and multiple possible paths.

This article offers a deep dive into the 2025 altcoin season. It examines a fundamental shift from traditional BTC dominance to a narrative-driven dynamic. It analyzes evolving capital flows, rapid sector rotations, and the growing impact of political narratives – hallmarks of what’s now called “Altcoin Season 2.0.” Drawing on the latest data and research, the piece reveals how stablecoins have overtaken BTC as the core liquidity layer, and how fragmented, fast-moving narratives are reshaping trading strategies. It also offers actionable frameworks for risk management and opportunity identification in this atypical bull cycle.

This article examines gold's vital role in modern investment portfolios, compares the volatility patterns between gold and Bitcoin, and demonstrates how gold's price stability makes it an effective capital preservation tool during market turbulence—in contrast to Bitcoin's high-risk characteristics.

Against the backdrop of the new U.S. tariff policies and rising stagflation risks, Grayscale analyzes how Bitcoin demonstrates its safe-haven qualities. With the weakening of the dollar and improvements in macroeconomic policies, Bitcoin could become the next "gold-like" asset of the era.

On April 8, local time, the U.S. market experienced a triple whammy of stock, bond, and currency losses. In just two trading days, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged from around 3.9% to 4.5%, and concerns began to grow over the liquidity risks posed by hedge fund basis trades. As we pointed out in "Trump's 'Great Reset': Debt Resolution, From Virtual to Real, and Dollar Depreciation" and "U.S. Treasury Quarterly Report: The Second Liquidity Inflection Point," hedge funds may have accumulated $1-1.5 trillion in U.S. Treasury spot holdings through basis trading. Volatility driven by trade tensions could accelerate the unwinding of these basis trades, leading to a bond market sell-off. U.S. Treasuries are at the heart of dollar liquidity derivation (refer to "Financial Cracks in the New Macro Paradigm"), and bond sell-offs can quickly shrink core collateral for short-term financing, causing liquidity tightening. If the debt ceiling issue is resolved in May or June and U.S. Treasury issuance increases, it cou

Exploring Trump's tariff strategy and its impact on global markets, power dynamics, and economic manipulation.

Over the past week, markets were primarily driven by the escalation of the US Iran conflict. WTI crude rose nearly 17% and returned above the $100 level, pushing US Treasury yields higher, with the 10 year reaching 4.44%, while the US dollar strengthened. The crypto market declined by more than 6% overall, and the VIX climbed to 31. On the capital side, BTC and ETH ETFs recorded about $500 million in net outflows mid week, followed by a modest rebound.