#分享美股交易赢英伟达股票 Did the fall in U.S. stocks wake up the "dream" of AI?
U.S. stock AI sector plunges sharply, bringing a short-term test to the global tech track
Last Friday, the U.S. stock AI sector suffered a heavy blow, with bullish funds facing clear pressure. On that day, the Nasdaq index dropped 4.18%, while the S&P 500 index also declined, falling 2.64%. Focusing on leading stocks in the hot AI industry chain, the decline was even more intense: Micron Technology plummeted 13%, Mware fell over 16%, Intel dropped 11%, Broadcom declined 8%, and even Nvidia, the core target of this round of AI rally, fell 6%. The significant correction caught many market investors off guard.
The collective weakness in U.S. tech stocks this round was not due to poor earnings reports from AI companies; the trigger was a set of unexpectedly strong U.S. employment data.
In May, the U.S. added 172k non-farm jobs, far exceeding the market expectation of 80k, doubling the growth rate, and the employment data for the previous two months was also significantly revised upward.
Traditionally, strong employment data indicates a healthy economy, but the U.S. stock market interpreted it quite differently. The current core demand in the U.S. market is not for sustained economic heating but for steady cooling. Only when economic growth slows can inflation levels gradually decline, giving the Federal Reserve room to cut interest rates. Looking at current price data, the U.S. CPI in April rose 3.8% year-over-year, and core PCE remained at 3.3%, indicating inflation still faces rebound pressure. The surge in employment data combined with high inflation directly caused the market’s expectations for Fed rate cuts this year to cool rapidly, even re-pricing rate hike expectations.
Market expectations then reversed: previously, mainstream views predicted the Fed would cut rates once this year; now, the market believes there may be a rate hike within the year. Between these two, the market interest rate expectation gap has reached 0.5 percentage points.
As a result, the dollar strengthened, and major assets such as gold, crude oil, cryptocurrencies, and U.S. stocks all tumbled collectively. Since most global assets are dollar-denominated, a stronger dollar will continue to suppress risk asset prices, which is the core logic behind this market-wide correction.
Tracing the root cause of this inflation rebound, geopolitical tensions are the key driver. In the first quarter of this year, U.S. inflation had already shown signs of easing, but in March, related geopolitical conflicts escalated, the Strait of Hormuz shipping was disrupted, and international oil prices surged 50% in the short term, directly pushing up overall price levels. Currently, negotiations have not made substantial progress, oil prices remain high, and inflationary pressures are unlikely to be fully alleviated in the short term.
Many investors are now most concerned: has the hot AI rally come to an end?
From a short-term market trend perspective, the direction remains uncertain, with U.S.-Iran negotiations becoming a key variable. If both sides reach an agreement soon, international oil prices could fall back to a reasonable range, with Brent crude dropping below $80, significantly easing U.S. inflation pressures, and market rate hike expectations would dissipate.
At that point, commodities, non-ferrous metals, and high-valuation AI sectors will have a chance to breathe.
Conversely, if oil prices stay high for a long time, combined with continued strong employment data, rate hike expectations will persist in the market. Under this environment, AI sectors with high valuations and previous excessive gains will continue to face correction pressure, and the more intense the previous speculation, the larger the adjustment space.
Looking at the domestic market, this year’s A-share AI computing power sector’s performance is highly correlated with overseas AI leaders. After the global tech stocks entered a correction cycle, the A-share AI sector also finds it difficult to move independently. The capital market has always oscillated between optimism and pessimism, and short-term volatility is normal.
From a long-term industry perspective, artificial intelligence is still in the early stages of development, and the industry growth logic has not changed. The long-term upward trend is unquestionable.
But we must also face the current changes: market liquidity expectations have shifted, and high-valuation sectors will inevitably undergo a risk test.
In the face of current turbulence, investors should not be overly bearish on the AI sector due to a single-day plunge, nor ignore the risk signals in front of them. Short-term fluctuations are influenced by multiple factors such as funds, interest rates, and geopolitics, and volatility is inevitable. At this stage, rationally controlling position sizes and reserving sufficient safety margins are far more important than blindly chasing gains or panicking during declines.
