AriaNaka

$BTC The market cap of treasury companies has lost more than $100B since October 2025. Their holdings went from a valuation of $396B to $272B.
Over the same period, the number of BTC held by these companies increased from 953,000 BTC to 1.14 million now.
—> Since May, as BTC reached an already significant undervaluation, their accumulation has slowed sharply, almost coming to a halt.
It’s interesting to note that it was between November 2024 and October 2025 that these companies accumulated most heavily, at a price ranging between $75,000 and $125,000.
Over that period, the number of BTC hel

$BTC You know how CME futures went 24/7 for $BTC ...
What’s interesting is that since then, the last 5 so called “CME gaps” have all acted like magnets, even when the weekend gaps simply don't even exist anymore.
It seems the algorithm hasn’t really changed yet, the stock market being closed still plays a key role in Bitcoin’s direction.

$BTC The Second Low of the Bear Market (solid orange dot) is coming soon. The window for it is August - October this year.
The last important Halving Cycles Theory point was the First Low (hollow orange dot), which came perfectly in its January - March window (February 2026 at 60k).
The cycle bottom (green dot) is set for later, from November this year to January of next year.
Right on track!

$BTC Old whales have finished their accumulation last year and are waiting for a rally.
However, New whales are continuing their accumulation. When their accumulation ends, the rally will begin.
What is clear is that whales are holding the largest amount in history.

$BTC We often see charts contrasting the evolution of supply in profit versus supply in loss.
This chart represents another aspect of that dynamic. It shows the percentage of unrealized profit and loss, which is ultimately a ratio.
—> Today the global average (mean) percentage of unrealized profit sits at ~81%.
We’re far from that today, as the percentage of unrealized profit currently stands at 65.8%.
Unrealized losses are thus estimated at 34.2%.
This means the market is currently supported by more profit held than losses.
That said, profits continue to decline.
It’s also interesting to

$BTC After the breakout of the falling wedge, price struggled to push higher, which led to a retest of the zone I previously explained must hold for any bullish case.
This zone indeed held up, and price bounced almost 5% after retesting it and the descending trendline of the wedge.
For me, the technical price target of 69K-70K remains likely.
However, we are currently in an interesting situation where it looks pretty bearish from an order flow perspective, as I explained yesterday, but potentially bullish from a technical analysis perspective.
What we also can’t forget is that on the higher ti

Altcoins Are Flashing a Rare Capitulation Signal While $BTC Holds Firm
Nearly 40% of altcoins are now trading near their All Time Lows, a level historically associated with late stage capitulation rather than the beginning of a new bear market. Liquidity has concentrated around Bitcoin, leaving the broader altcoin market deeply undervalued despite Bitcoin maintaining strength.
This divergence has appeared only a handful of times in previous cycles. As Bitcoin stabilizes and capital rotation returns, extreme ATL readings have often preceded explosive recoveries across quality altcoins. Smart m

$BTC is dumping again from the 64K sell zone (apologies for the telephone chart).
Like mentioned yesterday, I removed my long limits in this area because a revisit is a bearish sign.
We couldn’t get passed the previous daily high and rejected the 64k zone again.
If you’re still in the short from there I’d take 25% off here and go BE.
FOMC minutes today, so I’m not behind the charts a lot.
The long-scenario at the 60.3K area is still valid, approaching it as a bounce in the downtrend though.
If we don’t hold that, the 58.8K is my next POI for longs. Nice confluence with monthly open too.
My th

Short-term high-leverage long positions for $ETH are clustered around $1,720.
There is a possibility that moves to liquidate these positions will occur.

Wicked out on $BTC Long.
The setup itself is not valid anymore since we didn't get a strong reaction from 63.1k.
I won't be trading much in this LTF messy range for now. Waiting for a retest of 60.9k-59.5k region for a Long, and a Sweep of 65.7k-67.4k region for a Short.

The $BTC CVD indicator shows buying by whales.
Their net buying continues. During the short-term downtrend, purple whales further increased their purchases.
The buy wall on the below still exists, and there is still no large sell wall.

$BTC Update & Hyblock Heatmaps
Bitcoin bounced as expected yesterday.
Not interested in trading it here in the middle of the range.
But if we would get that sweep of the high, I'll be looking to short 66k.

$BTC Apparent demand has stayed negative for almost the entire year.
The dynamic remains unchanged and perfectly illustrates the current weakness in Bitcoin demand.
Today the market is seeing a slight improvement, helping BTC consolidate at these levels.
On June 3rd, demand hit a record negative for the year at -275,000 BTC. Today we’re at -75,000, which is an improvement worth noting, though a real improvement would be seeing this demand move back into positive territory on a sustained basis.
⌈In this context, Apparent Demand is calculated as the difference between new BTC issuance and the

The Open Interest (OI) of $SOL is trending downward, while the Net Position Delta is trending upward.
Currently, the rise is not due to buying long positions, but rather the liquidation and closing of short positions caused by the rise.
The current rally is driven by upward pressure in the spot market, not the futures market.
An explosive rally will begin when both the OI and Net Position Delta in the futures market increase simultaneously.

$BTC shorted again
Just opened a short in Discord.
> Clean 4H three-drive completion.
> We completed the rPOC -> rVAH rotation and are now accepting back below rVAH again
-> will try to play this ping pong move
> Left behind a long wick, suggesting unfinished business -> same applies to liq
> Orderflow fundamentals remain stretched: elevated funding, elevated OI and a heavily skewed liquidation imbalance toward the downside.
Doesn't mean this has to work. I can absolutely be wrong.
But from a probability standpoint, this is a clean rotation trade I'd take every time.

$BTC Orderflow Update
> We saw very strong spot aggression throughout the recovery, but that buying slowed noticeably into yesterday evening.
> The current correction remains relatively controlled. If leverage starts taking over, this can accelerate quickly.
-> spot not rolling over yet
> Funding has continued to grind higher, while OI remains elevated -> a lot of leverage was added on the move up
> Into the highs, participation faded. Volume declined and we saw a number of shorts getting squeezed out near the end of the move.
> Right now, perps are showing stronger selling aggression. If spot

$BTC easing into consolidation. Selling has cooled, futures longs are piling back in, and options traders aren't as spooked about downside anymore.
ETF outflows are drying up too. Hot capital is creeping back though, which could stir up volatility even as profits climb.

$BTC Bitcoin Weekly Analysis
Bitcoin jumped +7% this week and reclaimed the 200-week moving average, a positive sign after briefly falling below it.
Bullish factors:
- Reclaimed the 200-week MA
- Bullish RSI divergence is forming
- US economy remains strong
- ISM near 54 (4-year high) + Russell 2000 at all-time highs
- Lower geopolitical risk as US-Iran peace talks progress
Bearish factors:
- 4 year cycle suggests new low in Q4
- Still below the 20-week and 50-week MAs
- Weekly Death Cross is still active
Key Levels to watch:
Support: $58K
Resistance: $67K and $83K
Bottom Line:
Bitcoin is sho

$BTC It’s not looking good for bulls.
Exactly what I previously said I didn’t want to see during this move is happening.
Perps are continuously aping into longs, while spot CVD has been flat for a few days now.
This brings back the same dynamic that led to almost all previous reversals after a leg up over the past few months.
It’s just a fact in crypto that moves which aren’t supported by spot are very fragile.
Of course, this doesn’t mean we have to dump right away.
We have also seen that this can continue for a bit longer, but if we don’t get substantial spot buying soon, we’ll see new lows