CowEmperor

$BTC Bitcoin
I believe 74,500 is today’s bulls-and-bears dividing line in trading. If the price breaks below 72,900, then I will close all my short positions at that time. The price has previously pulled back to 73,500, but honestly, this 1-hour bullish fair value gap has prevented the price from falling further—this is also why it has rebounded. After closing my short positions, I want to go long around 71,600, because there is a strong low point near the midline that we can use as the invalidation level.
Summary
Hold steady above 74,500; possible retest of 76,000
If it breaks below

$BTC
After the weekend US-Iran negotiations broke down, oil prices remain high. As discussed last week, it seems that quickly reaching an agreement with Iran is not in America's best interest; last week's ceasefire news appears to be a localized attempt to stabilize the market. I previously warned that after the ceasefire agreement, the flow of ships through the Strait of Hormuz nearly came to a halt because US crude oil exports had reached a record high in recent weeks, as Asian buyers seek alternatives to compensate for the losses caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This still se

U.S. CPI Inflation Data$BTC
After the PCE data reflecting February was released yesterday, today we have another important inflation report—the CPI (reflecting March data), which is the first inflation data expected to show the impact of recent oil price increases. The CPI is expected to be 3.4%, significantly higher than last month's 2.4%. This is the largest month-over-month increase in CPI since the COVID-19 pandemic began and reveals the real impact of rising global oil prices.
This remains just a single data point and does not represent a trend, but if the CPI stays at this level or rise

$BTC BTC currently shows the large CVD gap in the contract leading the spot CVD blue line. This is usually a "cautious" signal. At least wait until the spot begins to rebound before considering this, especially since I have already taken profits on many spot trades during the rally. I have accumulated a total profit of 6R on these waves, so I need to stay a bit calm and think more clearly about where to buy during normal pullbacks.
To prepare for potential pullbacks, or if the ceasefire agreement is canceled, or who knows what headlines Iran and Israel might have next,
The best scenario is t

From a broader perspective, BTC is far from being overvalued. Compared to the 126K level, it is now clearly more suitable for gradual accumulation of BTC, as most of the supply in the market was in profit at that time. Currently, most of the supply is in loss. Historically, when the majority of supply is in loss, it often presents a good opportunity for long-term accumulation of BTC.
However, in each cycle, it usually takes several months of sustained loss to form a macro bottom, and a new low cannot be ruled out. When 50% or more of the total supply is in loss, BTC is often close to a macro

Bitcoin $BTC
Today PPI data will be released—whether the price can reclaim the 67,000 - 67,300 range is crucial. Once you see the 4-hour chart close above this area, it will sequentially take out 68,630 and 70k. Once the price reclaims this zone, I will prompt to add positions again. The price is very likely to break through the 4-hour supply zone near 70,800, but I currently don’t think it can reclaim 71.5k. If the 4-hour candle closes below 65,500, then it’s bearish—in that case, the price will quickly drop to 63,600 - 63,000, and my other pending order will also get filled. Reclaiming 67,3

Short-term oil price movements are mainly driven by news headlines related to Middle Eastern geopolitical developments. From a broader macro perspective, this can essentially be considered noise. What truly matters in the macro environment is the level and sustainability of oil prices. Even if a peace agreement is reached, energy prices will not immediately return to normal; there is usually a lag between supply chain adjustments and declines in energy costs. Oil prices have remained high for some time, exerting ongoing pressure on inflation.
U.S. diesel prices remain elevated at $5.40 per gal

April 1 $BTC Bitcoin and Trading Update
As of April 1, Bitcoin and trading updates, Coinbase discount is currently only $20-15, compared to the previous -$60, indicating a more neutral stance. Yesterday's ETF inflow exceeded $100 million, and Saylor's STRC purchase also surpassed $100 million.
Binance futures have sell limit orders around 70k (if Saylor's spot buy orders persist, these are likely fake orders to trap shorts and will be canceled), and buy walls at 66k have reappeared to support the market, so I need to place intraday limit orders above this level.
Core Focus Points
VAH= 70900
P

$BTC After multiple setbacks, this could be a positive step toward reaching 71,000.

$BTC BTC
I think the price might break 63,700 - 63,000 starting in Q2. If today’s 4-hour close drops below 65,900, it will be extremely bearish because that is the midline of the monthly chart.
Hopefully, the price will quickly regain above 67,000 today to support continued upward movement. So far, we haven't seen a daily close above 67,000. Once that happens, the 72k level will be broken, and you all will make big profits. I hope this happens soon.
Remember, any 4-hour close below 63k could lead to a dip toward 60k. Today during the US session, if 67k isn't quickly reclaimed, based on volume

$ZEC is showing strength similar to $TAO before, but 248 is an important resistance level. There is also bearish divergence and a strong high point. In my opinion, if the 4-hour close is above 248, the bullish target can be set at 277 and 289, but shorting is also a reasonable option.

$GOAT Long position support at 0.0181, re-entering at the support level, target 0.040+ with stop-loss at 0.0162. The time window below points to April. The trendline will eventually be broken; the only question is who will run out of patience first. 🎯 Shitcoin play

$ETH
From the 1-hour timeframe, it was rejected at the resistance level in 2026. I believe that in the next few hours, it will retest 1967 again.
We have a strong low at 1908, so I would consider placing a buy order at that level with a stop loss below. If it gets stopped out, I can switch to a long position at 1832, which would be a high-probability trade for me.
Any rally towards 2150 next week is a shorting opportunity, with the stop loss set above the strong high on the 1-hour timeframe.