This is a very important weekly close.

And so far, its looking good for the bulls.
But lets cover the 360 degree picture here.
On the HTF Bitcoin has now:
- Reclaimed HTF structure and the 2025 yearly low
- Broken out on the 1W RSI
- Ticked bullish on the 1W MACD
- Broken above the 100D SMA
On the bearish side we have:
- Below the 1W 50EMA
- Below the 200D EMA
- Short term holders average cost & true market mean at $79,000
There are some very key levels for BTC to work through here before you could begin to confirm a new uptrend.
However, every previous time Bitcoin has reclaimed HTF structure, it has marked the cycle low. In addition, with the RSI and MACD so strong, I am, every day that passes, expecting this to mark our low and move higher.
On the LTF we have:
- Price stabilising at this key level
- Funding on its longest negative streak in years
- Spot leading the rally
- Coinbase premium consistently positive
In short, there has been a strong bid for Bitcoin and its holding it.
My thoughts as we head into next week/month are that a rejection here to a retest of the $74k level could be next, retest the HTF structure breakout...
But then a move towards $86,000, breaking through STH cost basis and true market mean this time, to have a go at the 1W 50 and 1D 200 EMA's. They will bring another challenge.
Overall though, I am of the view that we have very likely bottomed here and the breaking above $74,400 on the weekly confirms the expanded flat correction for me.
Both the RSI, MACD and weekly structure show positive signs.
If we lose this level again on a next weekly close, that would be bearish and I would then be looking for lower targets in the range again.
Let's see how it goes!