#13周年

Is Bitcoin bottoming out?
‌Bitcoin has not yet issued a complete “market capitulation” signal, but it has entered the final stage of deep correction‌. The current price has fallen about 52% from the October 2025 high of $126,000, indeed touching the typical historical bear market retracement zone, but multiple indicators show that the market structure is evolving rather than collapsing entirely.
Specifically:
‌📉Price retracement of 52%‌: Although close to a “half,” it is much less than previous cycles (such as the 77% decline in 2021), reflecting increased market resilience, with institutional holdings and ETF inflows buffering selling pressure.
‌🔨30-day hash rate down 14-22%‌: A decline in hash rate usually indicates high-cost miners exiting, which is one of the market clearing signals. But the current decrease has not reached “hash rate collapse” levels (which typically require a sustained drop of over 30%), and leading mining companies are still increasing their holdings, indicating the industry is still undergoing structural adjustments.
‌📌7-day active supply decline‌: On-chain data shows that short-term holders (<155 days) have significantly released selling pressure, while long-term holders (>155 days) continue to accumulate, with supply concentrated in the “non-sellers” group—an important characteristic of the bottom area.
Overall, the Market Surrender Index has not triggered a “full capitulation” signal. True “capitulation bottoms” are usually accompanied by surging exchange inflows, large-scale miner sell-offs, and long-term holders turning net sellers—all of which have not yet occurred.
Instead, ETF fund flows have shifted from net outflows to stability, and channels for institutions to deploy Bitcoin through banking systems are opening. The market is shifting from “retail-led volatility” to “institution-led orderly adjustment.” $BTC $RAVE $ETH