Middle East Conflict Sparks Uncertainty, Limited Gold Strengthening

Focus on Gold:

Failure of US–Iran negotiations and increasing global geopolitical risks
Pressure from a strengthening US dollar and high interest rate expectations on gold
Monday, April 13, 2026 – Gold prices rose to US$4,670 per troy ounce at the start of today's trading session, driven by rising geopolitical uncertainty after ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran ended without an agreement. The failure of these talks triggered market concerns over the potential escalation of broader conflicts, including risks of global energy supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Although a ceasefire was previously reached for two weeks, the lack of progress in further negotiations caused market sentiment to shift back to safe-haven assets like gold, amid increasing caution among global market participants.

However, fundamentally, the room for gold to strengthen remains limited. The continued strength of the US dollar and high interest rate expectations for a longer period are the main factors suppressing gold movements. The surge in energy prices due to the conflict also raises inflation risks, ultimately reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve will maintain tight monetary policy. Additional factors such as gold sales by several countries also weigh on market sentiment.

Looking ahead, gold movements are expected to remain volatile with a tendency to stay within a limited range, influenced by developments in geopolitical negotiations and global monetary policy directions. Markets will watch for US inflation data (CPI and PCE) releases, as well as employment indicators, as key determinants of interest rate expectations. On the other hand, movements in the US dollar and bond yields will continue to be key variables in determining gold price directions.

Technically, the nearest support levels for gold are around $4,721 to $4,694, while the nearest resistance is at $4,785 to $4,822. If selling pressure increases, deeper support can be seen at $4,630, with medium-term resistance around $4,886.

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