4.13 Negotiation Breaks Down, Gold Drops Hundreds of Points Daily, Rebounds to Fill the Gap and Continue Short

Market Analysis:

1. The first round of US-Iran negotiations has officially concluded, with no substantive agreement reached, which is fully in line with market expectations. During the talks, Iran put forward 10 core demands, while the US proposed 15 negotiation conditions. The differences on key issues are significant and irreconcilable, leaving no room for compromise. Additionally, externally, Israel will certainly not watch passively as the US-Iran confrontation eases. The subsequent phase will see the US, Iran, and Israel entering a mid-term struggle and contest, with tensions far exceeding those of the early war stages.

2. With the US-Iran negotiations breaking down, the next core battleground will focus on the contest for the Strait of Hormuz, which is also a critical dividing line in the mid-term struggle between the two sides. As a “throat” of the global energy landscape, the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s energy switches. Control and initiative over it will directly determine the direction of the US-Iran mid-term confrontation. Meanwhile, the struggle for control of the strait will inevitably intensify global energy market volatility, becoming a key variable influencing energy prices.

Gold opened with a gap lower in the morning, directly breaking below the critical support of $4,700, with the lowest approaching around $4,644, as bearish momentum was released in full force. On the daily chart, the price has effectively broken below the short-term moving averages, with KDJ and RSI turning downward simultaneously, indicating a clear bearish trend. On the 4-hour chart, MA5/MA10/MA20 are arranged in a complete bearish order, exerting layered strong pressure on the price, with very limited rebound momentum. After the KDJ death cross, it continues to diverge downward, with the J value falling rapidly. Short-term bearish momentum is still being released; although the indicator has exited the oversold zone, there is no golden cross reversal signal. The current rebound is merely a technical correction after overselling, not a trend reversal.

On the 1-hour chart, MA5/MA10 briefly turned upward due to oversold rebound, but the mid-term MA20 remains steeply downward, continuing to suppress the price. Currently, the price is trading below the moving average system, with short-term rebound momentum quickly exhausted. MACD, after a bullish crossover below zero, shows decreasing red bars, and RSI has weakened again after rising to 45.89 from oversold levels. Volume shows a typical weak pattern of “rebound with decreasing volume, decline with increasing volume,” confirming that the current rebound is a continuation of the downtrend.

Today, focus on the gap area around 4745, followed by the strong resistance zone at 4750-4760. Only a strong breakthrough above 4760 and a stable position, coupled with MACD volume-increasing bullish crossover, can open the space for an upward attack toward 4800-4850; otherwise, all rebounds are opportunities to short. Support below is at 4610-4600. If this is broken effectively, a new deep decline will begin. Overall, the core trading idea today is to prioritize shorting on rebounds.

Gold Trading Strategy:
Aggressive: Short around 4740-4730 on rebounds, stop loss at 4750, target 4650
Conservative: Short around 4760 on rebounds, stop loss at 4775, target 4680

Disclaimer: The above content is for personal ideas and opinions sharing only and does not constitute trading advice.