The US-Iran negotiations this time failed! It's all just a show behind the scenes!

Tokyo University has been urging peace, but the US-Iran relationship hasn't really improved. Iran wants to negotiate, but doesn't dare trust the US—The Revolutionary Guards are watching closely. If they get played again, the government will have even less say.
Look at how clever Iran is: the English version abroad doesn't mention uranium enrichment; internally, the Persian version states "must insist." Why loosen up? Intelligence has arrived—8 US refueling aircraft and long-range bombers have taken off! The Revolutionary Guards are only reluctantly giving Trump a chance.
The most likely outcome of the negotiations: a watered-down agreement. The core terms have two versions—one for internal use and one for the international community. Iran will fulfill its commitments to the world, then go home and say whatever they want. The US relaxes sanctions a bit, allowing passage through the Strait of Hormuz, but if you think Trump will pay? Dream on. If he doesn't charge you, he's doing well.
Second possibility: negotiations break down, continue fighting, or even lead to a humanitarian crisis.
Third (20% chance): a major shake-up inside Iran, with the government truly in control, and external cooperation no longer backtracking. Now, negotiating with Iran, the government still needs to seek approval from the Revolutionary Guards—China's subway and high-speed rail investments have been exploited before, learned from India’s “graveyard for foreign investment”?
The key is the mindset of the Revolutionary Guards: the more fearful they are, the more hardline they become. They even send civilians to power plants to "protect the country"—without dispersing them. Is this patriotism? No, it's using people's lives as bargaining chips.
Divisions also exist within the US: Trump's true approval rating is 47%, opposition 51%; on a war with Iran, 47% support, 46% oppose. Iran can fully exploit this to shape public opinion. $BTC ‌btc
Finally, a honest word: whether negotiations succeed or fail, neighboring countries are already preparing—Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman are all seeking alternative routes—pipelines, railways, power plants, desalination plants, capacity is ready. While others talk about war, smart people focus on post-war reconstruction. #原油小幅上涨 #美伊停火协议谈判再生变故