Everyone thinks the US-Iran war is about to end, but a major crash might still be ahead

Today, I did a market scenario analysis with Gemini, and the conclusion is: if oil prices cannot fall below $80 within a month (stabilizing long-term), a major crash may be coming.
Next, the script may have two possible versions: the “Golden Pit” scenario, or the “Meat Grinder” scenario.
【Macro Scenario Analysis: Turning-Point Nodes for Crude Oil, Inflation, and the Overall Market】
1️⃣ Futures Crash vs. Spot Holding: The ceasefire news from the day before yesterday caused quantitative funds to be liquidated, leading crude oil “futures” to crash; but constrained by actual transportation and high insurance premiums, crude oil “spot” still stubbornly holds at high levels above 100.
2️⃣ Inflation Critical Point: When will high oil prices truly start to backfire on CPI? The key is mid to late May. By then, low-priced inventories held by real-economy enterprises will be exhausted, forcing them to raise prices to end customers, and the resulting substantial increase in inflation will bring a devastating blow.
3️⃣ Capital Runs Ahead and Dumps: Capital won’t foolishly wait for the May data. The market’s patience reaches its limit in late April (from the 21st ceasefire expiration~to the 28th Fed meeting). If spot oil prices still don’t fall, big funds will anticipate the Fed turning more hawkish and sell off in advance to avoid risk, and the overall market could crash at any time.
4️⃣ “Golden Pit” Scenario: If the April overall market gets mispriced downward in a panic-driven selloff, and in May crude oil spot truly falls meaningfully, this will knock out a perfect “Golden Pit,” ushering in a violent recovery. (It really is getting hot.)
5️⃣ “Meat Grinder” Scenario: If high oil prices continue to be unable to be resolved (hard holding through May), inflation rises again and confirms, and rate cuts for the year are completely out the window. Global liquidity will be drained, and the capital markets for the rest of the year will look extremely bleak. The only thing we can do is hope that in Q4 there is “controlled inflation + a return of rate-cut expectations + election-year liquidity support.”
Summary: Late April is an extremely dangerous period for rushing ahead—watch spot oil prices closely, guard against stampedes, and keep enough ammunition.