Market Strategy Tips (April 9 — April 10, Yesterday to Today)

Market Analysis
From yesterday to today (April 9 — April 10), the market is in an extreme tug-of-war phase between “profit-taking after reaching a new historical high for gold + the first day of a breakdown in the Middle East ceasefire agreement + the continued solidification of hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve.” Gold, after hitting a new record high of $4,856, experienced a sharp plunge, dropping over $150 in a single day and falling below the $4,700 level, entering a volatile correction at high levels; the crypto market also surged and then retreated, with Bitcoin breaking through $72,000 and facing resistance, leading to a significant pullback and a tug-of-war around $70k. Overall, risk appetite is rapidly cooling, and volatility is spiking, indicating a weak correction pattern.
Macro News
1. The core trading logic of the market has shifted to “the long-term expectation of high interest rates by the Federal Reserve being solidified + recurrent Middle East geopolitical conflicts + rapid cooling of global risk appetite,” with expectations for rate cuts this year remaining at a freezing point. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 98.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in April, and only a 1.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut by June. The market is pricing in at most one rate cut this year, with the first cut pushed back to after November. Several Fed officials continue to signal hawkish stances; voting member Barkin emphasized that “there is still uncertainty about the decline in U.S. inflation, and the labor market remains resilient beyond expectations. There is no need to rush to cut rates now; we need to wait for clearer signals of inflation falling.” Board member Cook stated, “If inflation remains sticky, the Fed will maintain current interest rates longer.” Regarding Middle East tensions, the two-week ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, effective April 8, broke down on the first day, with Israel launching airstrikes on 100 targets in Lebanon, explicitly stating that the ceasefire does not apply to Hezbollah. Major disagreements remain between Iran and the U.S. on key negotiation conditions: Iran demands the “permanent lifting of U.S. sanctions,” as a precondition for delaying the ceasefire, which the U.S. has explicitly rejected. Tensions are rising again. As a result, Brent crude oil rebounded from $103 to around $106, with marginal warming of recession fears; the dollar index rebounded to 104.6, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.37%, exerting strong pressure on non-yield assets like gold and cryptocurrencies, with global risk appetite rapidly cooling.
2. After reaching a new all-time high, gold experienced a sharp plunge, with profit-taking and macro hawkish pressures resonating, fully releasing high-level correction risks. International spot gold hit a high of $4,856.93/oz during yesterday’s Asian session, then profit-taking led to a rapid and unilateral plunge, with the lowest reaching $4,698.7/oz, a maximum drop of over 2.59% in 24 hours and a volatility of over $158. COMEX gold futures also fell sharply, with the lowest at $4,730, currently at $4,740, down 0.78% for the day. Domestically, gold T+D is at ¥1040.8/gram, down 1.48%; Shanghai Gold main contract is at ¥1043.38/gram, down 0.35%; retail prices for mainstream brand pure gold jewelry have fallen to ¥1470–1476/gram, slightly below historical highs. The core drivers of this round of market movement are: first, bearish sentiment dominates, profit-taking after the new high has led to a surge in COMEX gold futures short positions, combined with the rebound in the dollar and U.S. bond yields, and the solidification of hawkish Fed expectations, which are the main reasons for the sharp decline in gold prices; second, support still exists at the bottom, as the breakdown of the Middle East ceasefire agreement marginally warms safe-haven sentiment, coupled with China’s central bank’s 17 consecutive months of gold purchases, maintaining the long-term logic of global central banks’ gold buying, forming phased physical demand support below $4,700. On the funding side, the world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased holdings by 2.18 tons to 1,056.6 tons on April 8, continuing its accumulation trend, but short-term profit-taking dominates the market. Key levels: core support at $4,680–$4,700 (intraday low + key support/resistance), strong support at $4,600–$4,620; core resistance at $4,750–$4,780, strong resistance at $4,820–$4,850.
3. The crypto market surged then sharply retreated, with Bitcoin losing the $72,000 level, profit-taking and risk aversion driving the trend, and market sentiment quickly cooling. Bitcoin reached a high of $72,480 yesterday (a two-week high), then synchronized with gold, plunging to a low of $69,850, and currently trading at $70,650, with a maximum 24-hour drop of over 3.6%. Ethereum also declined, with a high of $2,210, a low of $2,085, and currently at $2,120, down 2.05% in 24 hours. Mainstream coins like SOL and DOGE also retraced, generally falling over 4% intraday. Regarding capital and on-chain data: spot BTC ETF continued net inflows, with a single-day net inflow of $98.6 million on April 8, including Fidelity’s FBTC with net inflows of $72 million; Grayscale’s GBTC net outflows narrowed to $12 million, indicating long-term institutional interest remains. The contract market saw 124k liquidations in 24 hours, totaling $342 million, with 68% of liquidations being long positions, indicating concentrated long liquidations as a core driver of the price decline. On-chain data shows exchange BTC net outflows of 8,900 coins in one day, continuing net outflows, with whale addresses holding large positions below $70,000 remaining concentrated, and long-term holding addresses under less pressure. The crypto fear and greed index fell to 38, back into the fear zone, with market sentiment rapidly cooling. Technically, the short-term support level is at $70,000, which has shifted from support to strong resistance; the mid-term upward trend remains intact, but short-term correction pressures have significantly increased.
Special Reminder
Gold is currently in a high-level correction cycle after reaching a peak, with a single-day plunge of over $150 confirming the short-term profit-taking pressure from bulls has been fully released. Coupled with the persistent hawkish expectations for the Fed and the strong pressure from the rebound in the dollar and U.S. bonds, high-level volatility risk has sharply increased. It is strictly prohibited to blindly bottom-fish or trade against the trend. The $4,750 level has now become a strong resistance zone; beware of continued selling pressure from bulls that could lead to a secondary decline. It is recommended to hold a light position and wait; only when the market stabilizes around the strong support zone of $4,600–$4,620 should small long positions be considered, with a strict stop-loss at $4,580. When the price rebounds above $4,750, consider reducing positions on rallies, and maintain strict position control to avoid extreme high-level volatility risks.
The crypto market’s recent rally has experienced its first major correction, with profit-taking pressure above $72,000 significantly released, increasing short-term correction risks, but the mid-term upward trend remains intact. It is strictly forbidden to chase high positions or bottom-fish at high levels; keep positions within 30%. The $70,000 level is a short-term support/resistance line; if it is effectively broken downward, it could open the way to $68,000, so timely position reduction is necessary to avoid risks. Only when the market tests and stabilizes around $70,000 and recovers above $72,000 with increased volume should partial positions be added, prioritizing risk avoidance at high levels.