#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Why is the strong non-farm payroll report causing Bitcoin to fall? (3 key logical reasons)

1. The Fed's rate cut expectations have completely reversed (most critical)
• Before the data: market bets on a 7.8% chance of a 25bp rate cut in June
• After the data: the probability of a June rate cut plummeted to 2.0%, the likelihood of maintaining high rates rose to 97.5%, reigniting the "higher for longer" pricing
• Impact: Bitcoin is a zero-yield risk asset. In a high interest rate environment, the opportunity cost of holding skyrockets, leading institutional funds to flow back from crypto to U.S. Treasuries/USD assets
2. Dual suppression from the dollar + U.S. Treasury yields (direct pressure)
• U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): surged short-term to 100.1, hitting a nearly 2-month high, causing passive devaluation of dollar-denominated crypto assets
• 10-year U.S. Treasury yield: jumped to 4.35%, funds shifted from high-risk assets to fixed income, draining liquidity from crypto
3. Strong non-farm payroll → soft landing expectations → increased attractiveness of traditional risk assets (U.S. stocks) → crypto funds flow out
• Previously, BTC accumulated large profit-taking and high-leverage longs above 70k. Negative data triggered concentrated liquidations, creating a "longs killing longs" scenario

Current core features of the crypto market
1. Macro-driven, technical analysis ineffective
• Short-term completely detached from on-chain data/halving narratives. The Fed's policy expectations and dollar strength are the only core variables
• Middle East tensions + pre-Easter risk aversion lead to double negative shocks, intensifying volatility
2. Institutional behavior: ETF funds shifting
• U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF: after data release, daily net outflows exceeded $180 million, marking the first significant outflow in nearly 3 weeks
• Grayscale GBTC: negative premium widened to -8.5%, institutions show increased willingness to reduce holdings
3. On-chain signals: short-term pressure, medium-term resilience remains
• Profit addresses: decreased from 82% to 76%, but long-term holders (over 1 year) have not sold massively
• Exchange balances: slightly increased, selling pressure mainly from short-term traders and leveraged funds, indicating no long-term consensus breakdown
• Key events: April CPI (4.10), May non-farm payroll, June FOMC
• Scenario A: inflation cools → rate cut expectations restart → BTC returns above 75k
• Scenario B: sticky inflation + strong employment → high rates persist → BTC consolidates between 65k–72k

Long-term (6+ months): halving + institutional allocation logic unchanged
• Bitcoin's April halving approaches, supply deflation expectations remain
• Global easing cycle will eventually begin, crypto as an alternative asset continues to increase in long-term allocation value

U.S. March non-farm payrolls of 178k exceeded expectations, directly triggering the collapse of rate cut expectations, a stronger dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and a short-term macro-driven market correction. In the medium term, attention should be paid to inflation and Fed policy shifts. In the long term, halving and institutional allocation logic still support the value of the crypto market.