Just noticed the coffee market is getting pretty messy right now. Arabica futures are up slightly today, but robusta has been bleeding out—now at a 4-week low. The main culprit seems to be what's happening in Brazil weather in March and beyond. Minas Gerais, which produces most of Brazil's arabica, got absolutely soaked last week with nearly 70mm of rain, way above the seasonal average. That's pushing expectations for bigger harvests, and the market's clearly pricing in more supply coming.

Brazil's crop agency bumped up their 2025 harvest forecast by 2.4% back in December, now expecting 56.54 million bags instead of 55.20 million. But here's the thing—Brazilian coffee exports actually dropped 18.4% in December, so there's some supply tightness showing up despite the optimistic production numbers. That's giving prices a bit of a floor.

The real pressure though is coming from Vietnam. Their coffee exports jumped 17.5% year-over-year to 1.58 million metric tons, and they're not slowing down. For the 2025/26 season, Vietnam's expected to hit 1.76 million metric tons—a 4-year high. That's flooding the robusta market and keeping a lid on prices. Meanwhile, ICE stocks have been climbing back up from their lows, which is another bearish signal.

So basically, you've got Brazil weather in march delivering more rain than usual, Vietnam pumping out record robusta, and inventories rebuilding. Prices are stuck in a downtrend unless something shifts with the supply picture. The arabica side found a bit of support today, but the overall tone is still pretty weak.