Wintermute: The accumulated energy in the crypto market has not yet reached a consensus, and the direction will be determined by the trigger point.

ME News update on March 31 (UTC+8): Wintermute said that the four-week window for easing conditions is about to end, and the underlying issues still show no signs of resolution. Brent crude is trading above 112 USD, the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, and the probability of further rate hikes continues to climb. The macro upper bound for risk assets is below where it was a month ago, making it difficult for the Bitcoin price to sustain above $70,000. The March 27 expiry not only cleared $14 billion in risk exposure, but also removed the delta-hedging cash flows that had previously caused spot prices to oscillate around key strike-price ranges. Without this passive buy/sell order support structure, the market is more prone to one-sided moves as fund flows diminish. On top of that, there are negative ETF inflows for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, and while perpetual contract leverage rates are high, with cycle low volatility providing no clear directional signal, such a market setup will not slowly evolve—it will abruptly break out. If credible progress is made on the diplomatic front, and oil prices pull back to around $100, then shorts will face the risk of being forced out of positions, and the Bitcoin price could rebound into the $70,000 to $74,000 range. If easing conditions persist, the $74,000 resistance level may be tested. Conversely, if tensions escalate further and oil pushes up to $120, the Bitcoin price could fall to just above $60,000; if the cycle’s trajectory is similar, it could even drop into the $50,000 to $55,000 range. More importantly, the directional issue here is secondary compared with the market structure itself. Perpetual contract leverage is relatively high; funding rates are moving within the narrowest range on record, and volatility-of-volatility is compressing. No matter which direction the catalyst pushes for, the market structure indicates that the resulting trading volatility will far exceed the levels currently implied by spot, perpetual futures, and options pricing. (Source: Foresight News)