I just heard that the CFTC is about to allow real US futures trading in the US within the next few weeks, meaning perpetual futures without expiration dates like on offshore exchanges. Chairman Michael Selig recently stated at the Milken Institute conference in Washington that the agency is pushing forward with the deployment of this product.

The advantage of this is that currently, the US only has long-term futures contracts with fixed expiration dates, not true perpetuals. As a result, most derivatives trading volume still flows overseas — according to data, the global Bitcoin derivatives market trades about $85 billion daily, but only around 1.6% is concentrated on regulated US exchanges. That number is too small compared to the potential.

If futures are truly approved, it will completely change the infrastructure landscape. First, standardize the product; second, expand margin assets to include stablecoins; third, traditional brokerage systems like Interactive Brokers could distribute widely; fourth, improve arbitrage between spot, futures, and ETFs. All of these help reduce spreads and increase order book depth.

But there are also issues. Currently, CFTC personnel are insufficient — only Selig has been confirmed by the Senate, with four other positions still vacant. Meanwhile, SEC and CFTC are still debating oversight authority. A market structure bill is under discussion, but progress is slow due to disagreements over stablecoin yields and tokenized stocks.

Nevertheless, if futures are implemented, offshore derivatives flows could start shifting back to the US. Coinbase Derivatives currently reports about $137 million in open Bitcoin contracts, but in an optimistic scenario, this could grow to $1 billion in a few quarters, with daily volume reaching $2-4 billion.

What matters is not the absolute size but the increased credibility of price discovery in the US and reducing leverage concentration on foreign exchanges. Perpetuals don’t create new demand; they only enable expressing confidence with leverage — both bullish and bearish.

Some analyses suggest that Q3 could be a cycle turning point, as leverage has been reset and the risk of cascade liquidations diminishes. Onshore perpetuals don’t generate that confidence, but they could improve market conditions by allowing more effective hedging without selling spot into thin markets.

If USDC and tokenized assets become the standard margin assets in regulated US futures, stablecoins will shift from trading tools to market infrastructure — a real structural change. At the same time, CME Group has launched continuous crypto futures and options contracts, showing that crypto derivatives are integrating into traditional financial infrastructure.

There are two sides to this. For those who understand the risks, it’s a better tool with narrower spreads. But it could also tempt larger leverage for those unprepared. The democratization of sophisticated derivatives is always a double-edged sword.