Bitcoin Ready for the ‘End of War’ Narrative Ahead of Trump’s Iran Speech

Bitcoin remains steady around $68,000 on Wednesday as the market awaits an important speech from President Donald Trump regarding Iran. Reports suggest that Trump may signal that the conflict will soon be over, possibly within weeks, and that recent actions are considered successful strategic moves.

Although the “end of war soon” narrative is gaining traction, Bitcoin intraday data actually shows a more cautious market beneath the surface.

Sell-Driven Rally, Not Built Up

Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) shows a clear trend: sellers dominate throughout the day.

After a brief rise early in the session, CVD continues to decline into negative territory. This indicates that sell orders are more aggressive than buy orders. Simply put, traders are capitalizing on price strength to exit positions rather than opening new ones.

Even when there’s a slight recovery at the end of the day, selling pressure remains evident. This suggests weak confidence in a price rally.

Volume Confirms Distribution

On-Balance Volume (OBV) also paints a similar picture.

While Bitcoin’s price moves sideways for most of the session, OBV actually declines. This divergence indicates that volume is flowing out of the asset, not into it.

In simple terms, the market is not accumulating Bitcoin. Instead, it’s quietly distributing, with more sellers than buyers throughout the day.

Late Buyers Enter Gradually

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) provides an additional layer of analysis.

This indicator briefly moves into positive territory toward the end of the day, signaling some buyers entering in the final hours. However, the movement is small and not yet consistent.

This suggests buying activity during dips, but demand is not strong enough or sustained enough to confirm a breakout.

Market Preparing but Not Committed

Overall data indicates the market is taking a defensive stance.

Bitcoin seems to be factoring in the possibility of de-escalation in price. However, traders are not yet taking high-leverage speculative positions on a breakout. Instead, they prefer to sell during rallies and wait for further confirmation.

This pattern aligns with the broader “sell the news” scenario.

Narrative Priced In but Not Trusted

If Trump truly confirms that the conflict will end soon, the market might initially respond positively. However, Bitcoin flow data shows that this expectation is already largely reflected in the price.

Currently, the market is not chasing that narrative. They are preparing—with caution.