When the question of who is truly behind Bitcoin arises, the name Nick Szabo always comes up in discussions. A recent HBO documentary from October reignited speculation about the true identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, and interestingly, Nick Szabo is among the most likely candidates in market predictions.

Why Nick Szabo? I must say, his story in blockchain begins long before Bitcoin even existed. Szabo is an American cryptographer and legal scholar who has been involved in computer science since the 1990s. He graduated from the University of Washington in 1989 and also holds a law degree from George Washington University.

What makes him an intriguing candidate is his fundamental contribution to the development of blockchain. In 1994, Nick Szabo introduced the concept of smart contracts—the idea that code can ensure legal certainty in the digital world. That was revolutionary. Smart contracts later became the foundation of the entire industry.

But there’s something even more interesting. In 1998, Nick Szabo proposed a currency called "bit gold." It was entirely digital, required no intermediaries, and addressed double-spending through proof-of-work. When you read about it, it’s not hard to see parallels with Bitcoin. Bit gold used a chain of cryptographic proofs, but it had certain weaknesses—it was vulnerable to Sybil attacks.

Szabo himself described his vision as follows: "I came across the idea of bit gold a long time ago. The core problem is that our money today depends on trust in a third party. As shown by the inflationary and hyperinflationary episodes of the twentieth century, that’s not ideal."

Ten years after Szabo first introduced bit gold, the Bitcoin whitepaper by Satoshi Nakamoto appeared in October 2008. Coincidence? Maybe. Bit gold is widely regarded as a direct predecessor of Bitcoin.

On Polymarket, the current betting is on who is the real Satoshi. Nick Szabo leads among candidates with double-digit percentages, while others remain in the single digits. Len Sassaman was once a favorite, but Szabo has taken the lead.

Arguments in favor of Nick Szabo are compelling. First, there’s the very concept of bit gold—created by Szabo but never fully realized. Then there’s his overall contribution to blockchain and cryptography, demonstrating his technical capabilities. In the book "Bitcoin: The Future of Money?" author Dominic Frisby points out remarkable similarities in handwriting between Szabo and Satoshi. Both referenced economist Carl Menger. Both are known for their privacy preferences.

But here’s the thing—Nick Szabo consistently denies being Satoshi Nakamoto. And that’s actually another piece of evidence supporting his theory. Those who truly claim to be Satoshi are almost certainly not. Szabo remains mysterious, which is exactly what you would expect from the real Satoshi.