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🚨 QUANTUM COMPUTING DOESNT THREATEN BITCOIN 🚨
Firstly we are assuming that Quantum computers can even scale to ever be a threat to Bitcoin. We have not proven this to be certain yet.
Assuming it’s needed, Bitcoin’s timeline to fully migrate to quantum-resistant signatures is vastly over exaggerated.
The work is already being done and if there is any systemic threat to Bitcoin getting a change through will be QUICK and easy. Bitcoin has hardforked in the past - this would be no different.
Todays Quantum computers do not solve any problems efficiently that are related to real world use cases and many doubt that QCs that efficiently solve real problems used to secure fintech and private messages will ever be discovered. It’s a logical fear - but it’s yet to be proven feasible on any level.
Quantum computers do not affect ASIC mining and we have no need to replace any hardware due to Grover’s algorithm. A breakthrough in Quantum computers would undermine most encryption (Most banking and national security would be in jeopardy) and with Bitcoin would simply weaken its security assumptions (not break Bitcoin's security) that can be fixed by switching Bitcoin to using PQC signatures (Lamport, OP_SPHINCS, CRYSTALS-Dilithium...) In all likelihood there will be many years of warning before we are anywhere close to QC becoming a threat, if ever, to Bitcoin. If a black swan breakthrough event occurs than we could simply roll back the chain to undue all this damage (not ideal but this is extremely unlikely scenario).
THE 3 POSSIBILITIES:
1.Quantum computers simply never scale where they are ever a threat. Many journalists and companies working on quantum computers exaggerate the threat likelihood of quantum computers to get more attention for clicks, for more grant money or investment funding or simply because their perspective is biased because they are optimistic their life's work will come to fruition.
2.Quantum computers eventually become a threat to Bitcoin but slowly creep up in ability where we have a 10+ year headstart to hardfork in new signatures and allow all vulnerable UTXOs to move to secure addresses . Bitcoin has already hardforked 2-3 times and we need to hardfork anyways for the year 2038 problem (anytime before the year 2106) and any other hardfork wish list items. Such a hardfork would not be controversial at all as it would address systemic problems that affect all Bitcoin users.
3.A quantum breakthrough happens overnight and the attacker begins moving all those lost UTXOs. We would need to do an emergency hardfork and reorg the chain undoing all/most the attackers efforts . This would be embarrassing for Bitcoin but not the end of the world.
Of the 3 possibilities , the last one is extremely unlikely. Bitcoin core developers are already working on multiple solutions to address Quantum Computers . Here are two examples –
Solutions to protect Bitcoin from early insecure address types in a fair manner :
credit u/bitusher