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I've recently spent a lot of time analyzing trends in the crypto market and want to share what I've learned. The most important thing: crypto follows trends, and if you know how to recognize them, you can save a lot of money and frustration.
So, how does it work? Always start with the higher timeframes. What happens on the daily or weekly chart ultimately determines the direction. The smaller timeframes are just noise in that. That means you can use movements on the hourly chart to perfectly time your setup on the daily chart.
In an uptrend, it's pretty simple: the price continuously forms higher highs and higher lows. That’s your sign that it’s heading upward. If the price doesn’t break through any of the previous lows, then you know the trend is still intact. As long as that’s the case, stay bullish.
Where do you enter? This is where the art comes in. The price never moves straight up. There are always pullbacks. When the price falls into the key zone, that is, to the previous higher low, that can be your entry point. The target is then new highs.
Now, for a bearish trend. That’s the opposite: the price makes lower highs and lower lows. Once you recognize that, you know it’s heading downward. Many people miss this because they stay too optimistic. But once the bearish trend is established, you need to change your perspective.
In short-trading during a bearish market, it works similarly to long-trading. If the smaller timeframe gives you a jump into the upper zone of the larger timeframe, look for short triggers there. The target is then new lows.
The most critical part: trend reversals. That’s where most people lose money. When everyone is pessimistic and the trend develops into an uptrend, they refuse to accept it and keep shorting. And when everyone is optimistic and the trend changes, they keep buying even though the bearish trend has long been established.
How do you recognize a trend reversal? Using the same method you use for bullish and bearish trends. When the uptrend breaks, the price falls below the previous higher low. Then you can shift your stance from bullish to neutral and wait. Some take profits here, others open short positions directly.
In a bearish trend, it’s the opposite: if the price breaks through the lower highs and rises above them, that’s a clear sign that the trend is turning upward.
That’s basically all you need to know. Be optimistic when the trend is bullish. Be pessimistic when the trend is bearish. And change your stance when the trend shifts. That’s the way to consistent profits and avoiding big losses.