Heated Debate Over $10,000 Target, Bitcoin Currently Trading in the 70K Range—Industry Experts Point Out That Nuclear War-Level Shock Would Be Needed

Bloomberg senior strategist Mike McGlone continues to assert the possibility of Bitcoin dropping below the $10,000 level, but market participants are increasingly skeptical. In response to his bearish forecast, several analysts argue that such a sharp decline would require extraordinary circumstances that are unlikely under normal market mechanisms. The debate over the $10,000 price target remains a key theme in predicting the overall direction of the cryptocurrency market.

Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $70,750 (at the time of writing), up 3.70% over 24 hours. With price movements remaining within the $69,000 to $71,000 range, discussions about market bottoming are intensifying among traders.

McGlone’s Bullish Outlook vs. Analysts’ Skepticism

McGlone maintains that the crypto market is still in a long-term macro-driven adjustment phase, suggesting that Bitcoin could fall below $10,000 again. He believes that if global risk assets undergo a rapid reevaluation, Bitcoin will remain vulnerable.

However, industry experts strongly oppose this view. Math Greenspan, founder and CEO of Quantum Economics, points out that a sudden drop to $10,000 would require a series of extreme scenarios, such as a global liquidity crisis, nuclear war, or internet shutdowns. He argues that massive assets traded daily in the hundreds of billions of dollars would not plummet to such levels from typical macroeconomic shocks alone.

Greenspan also warns that analysts often get misled by short-term macro noise, leading to unreasonable conclusions that diverge from market realities.

Current Market Conditions: Near $70,000

Bitcoin is currently trading around $70,000, maintaining this level for the time being. Last week, during a sharp rise in oil prices, BTC briefly surged but was later pushed down by profit-taking amid oil market corrections. Altcoins like Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP showed similar movements, indicating ongoing caution toward risk assets across the market.

On the global front, oil prices have surged 50% due to conflicts in Iran, increasing inflation pressures. Additionally, the UK 10-year gilt yield has exceeded 5% for the first time since 2008, reflecting widespread bond market sell-offs. These macroeconomic deteriorations are weighing heavily on the Bitcoin market.

Conditions Needed for $10,000: An Unrealistic Scenario

Jason Fernandez, co-founder and market analyst at AdLuna, shares the view that a decline to $10,000 would require shocks far beyond what McGlone envisions. He states that even a drop to $28,000 would involve “not just a delayed recession, but significant financial stress events such as a major reduction in global liquidity or a sharp widening of credit spreads.”

Jonathan Ryndin, senior market analyst at PrimeXBT, echoes this sentiment, saying, “While some analysts predict extreme price targets during bearish phases, a fall to $10,000 is highly unlikely in reality.” He attributes such predictions to overly pessimistic market sentiment, which creates unrealistic forecasts.

Is the Bottom Already in? Market Participants’ Views

Meanwhile, Greenspan suggests that “trying to pinpoint the exact bottom is a foolish endeavor,” but also notes that Bitcoin may have already completed its major bear market correction. He believes that a 50% retracement from the all-time high after the 2022 crash is “not unusual for Bitcoin.”

He views recent price movements positively, stating, “It’s quite possible that the bottom has already been reached,” and sees signs of improving market sentiment.

Ryndin predicts a long-term gradual downtrend but also suggests that the next major accumulation zone could appear between $30,000 and $40,000. In the short term, he expects prices to fluctuate within the $60,000 to $70,000 range, with occasional attempts to test $80,000, but macro pressures are likely to keep upward moves temporary.

Bearish Markets Are Not Over—McGlone’s Warning

In response, McGlone argues that before a sustained bottom can form, “a long-term cleansing of speculative excesses is necessary.” He believes this process will continue until these excesses are fully eliminated, implying that a prolonged bear market is still ongoing.

He warns that if global risk assets undergo a rapid reevaluation, a further decline to $10,000 remains a realistic possibility. However, most industry experts analyze that such a drop would require “an extraordinary economic crisis or financial stress that is unlikely under normal market participation,” highlighting a significant gap between McGlone’s bearish forecast and current market psychology.