The capital markets in 2026 are witnessing an unprecedented tug-of-war. On one side, unicorns in the Generative AI (GAI) sector are raising massive rounds of funding, continually pushing valuation ceilings higher. On the other, compliance-driven giants from the crypto industry are making their way to Nasdaq, aiming to embed blockchain finance into Wall Street’s mainstream narrative. For astute investors, pre-IPOs have always been a key window for capturing exponential returns. At this pivotal moment, the question arises: Is the technological revolution driven by large AI models more explosive, or does the foundational infrastructure of Web3 and blockchain finance offer greater certainty?
AI Sector: Unicorn IPO Wave Arrives, High Valuations Amid Tech Bubble Concerns
Since spring 2026, China’s domestic large AI model sector has become a battleground for capital markets. Under the dual pressures of open source and commercialization, leading companies are fast-tracking their IPOs on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
1. Leading Players Race to Hong Kong Listings
In early May, Hong Kong’s AI market continued to heat up, with StepStar’s IPO timeline being the most concrete. According to public filings, StepStar plans to submit its listing application to the HKEX by June 30, with cornerstone pricing expected around $10 billion. Earlier, Zhipu AI and fellow unicorn MiniMax both went public in Hong Kong in early January 2026, kicking off this wave of large model capitalization. The most watched, however, is Moonshot AI. Although its founder claimed earlier in the year that "listing is not the goal," by late March 2026, market sentiment had shifted dramatically. The company quietly launched a nearly $1 billion pre-IPO funding round, pushing its post-money valuation to $18 billion.
2. Why Must AI Companies Rush to Go Public?
The long-term growth of the large model industry is heavily reliant on substantial capital outlays—such as the ongoing compute costs driven by user outputs. Facing persistent high R&D expenses and uncertainty, going public often becomes a matter of survival. In terms of valuation logic, OpenAI serves as the benchmark: the company’s 2025 revenue was about $13 billion, yet it still posted net losses. Similarly, domestic leaders in 2026 need the IPO process to validate their revenue growth. Meanwhile, risk appetite is diverging between primary and secondary markets, so founders with lofty valuations must seize the window before market enthusiasm wanes.
3. Investment Opportunities and Risks in the AI Sector
For investors focused on pre-IPO rounds, this period offers both a chance to anchor valuations and a need to watch for tail risks. For example, StepStar’s first pre-IPO B+ round was priced at $4 billion, with the next round planned to rise to $5–6 billion—an attractive range for different types of investors. On the flip side, the notion that "listing marks the peak" is raising concerns. Zhipu, for instance, saw its share price open strong on its debut but quickly narrowed gains and briefly fell below the IPO price, reminding the market to take a pragmatic view of short-term pullbacks amid the hype.
Crypto Sector: Traditional Finance Titans Enter, Compliance Infrastructure Takes All
From 2025 to 2026, the crypto industry’s IPO landscape has shifted markedly toward mainstream exchanges, moving from early "crypto wild west" days to strict regulatory oversight. Its price-to-earnings ratios and revenue models now closely resemble those of traditional finance, showing relatively stable growth.
1. Major Exchanges and Wallet Providers Target Nasdaq
By May 2026, the crypto market’s macro environment was showing signs of bottoming out and rebounding. Bitcoin repeatedly held and broke above the $80,000 mark during this period. As of May 7, the BTC price hovered near $81,000, briefly hitting a three-month high of $82,000 that day. Following in the footsteps of Coinbase and BitGo, exchange Kraken plans to go public in the first half of 2026. Kraken completed an $800 million pre-IPO round in November 2025, reaching a $20 billion valuation, with investors including traditional finance giants like Citadel Securities and Jane Street. Meanwhile, wallet ecosystem Consensys is working closely with investment banks to prepare for its IPO, leveraging its deep ties to Ethereum (ETH). On the ETF front, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $2 billion in net inflows in April. Crypto infrastructure, with its low fees and high liquidity, is drawing compliant capital back to the sidelines, providing certainty for post-IPO capital support.
2. The Rise of On-Chain Pre-IPO Trading and Tokenization
Beyond traditional IPOs, May saw the emergence of new crypto opportunities—tokenized pre-IPO trading. Platforms like Robinhood now allow users in certain regions to trade tokenized shares of private companies using blockchain technology. While OpenAI has expressed concerns about such "unsupported tokens," the resulting debates around property rights, valuations, and secondary market liquidity will have lasting impact. Furthermore, in micro-token models ranging from private fundraising to Launchpad listings, the "pre-IPO" concept is already deeply embedded. For example, with rumors of Kraken’s IPO and several RWA (Real World Asset) private rounds, early institutional investors often enter at costs well below one cent. Once listed on major exchanges like Gate, these assets frequently see dramatic market cap increases.
3. Risks and Macro Pressures in the Crypto Sector
Despite attracting significant professional asset management, the crypto industry remains vulnerable to currency volatility. On May 7, Federal Reserve officials delivered hawkish remarks, warning of renewed inflation risks and leaving the door open for further rate hikes. This put pressure on Bitcoin’s $81,000 psychological level, leading to some capital outflows. Meanwhile, Zcash surged over 40% in a single day on May 6, briefly reaching $600, highlighting the extreme volatility still present among smaller coins. Additionally, some Hong Kong-listed assets are influencing the risk appetite for emerging global assets. As such, investors must look beyond the headline figures to the real business fundamentals behind each project.
In-Depth Comparison: AI as Growth Stocks, Crypto as Value-Transformation Plays
When it comes to pre-IPO investments, the underlying logic of AI and crypto sectors diverges significantly. The AI sector relies on technological iteration and revenue multiples to achieve high valuations—much like buying options on growth stocks. In contrast, core crypto IPO candidates are typically exchanges, asset managers, or infrastructure firms with highly stable revenues (e.g., trading and custody fees). This round of mainstream events is more about realizing compliance premiums, with expectations for medium-term cash returns. In terms of allocation, investors should choose based on their risk tolerance. Those bullish on AI’s explosive potential should consider pre-IPO shares in unicorns like StepStar. Those preferring stable business models may focus on on-chain equity mapping or early token allocations for companies like Kraken and Ledger.
Conclusion
AI and crypto are currently the two most dynamic emerging sectors in the capital markets, each offering core growth drivers and significant valuation upside. The AI sector is undergoing dense, marathon-style commercial validation, with leading firms enjoying first-mover valuation premiums. Meanwhile, foundational crypto infrastructure companies are poised for performance turnarounds driven by long-term compliance. For investors, the optimal strategy is to maintain a "dual allocation" mindset—at this rare pre-IPO deployment window, seize the differentiated timing opportunities each sector presents. Ultimately, real returns come from a deep understanding of industry trends and proactive risk management. Stay tuned to Gate for the latest updates—we’ll continue to deliver cutting-edge industry analysis and the best entry channels for pre-IPO investors in our Innovation Zone.
