Bitcoin has reached $80k! Why is it rising, and will it continue to go up? How to operate with ZEC now, let's take a quick look.
1. First, let's talk about why BTC is rising, check out the chart. Is MicroStrategy crazy? They usually buy only a few hundred million dollars worth of Bitcoin per week, but in the past month, they’ve been buying $1 billion to $2.5 billion every week! What does that mean?
2. Currently, all Bitcoin ETFs hold only about $80k, while MicroStrategy bought $5 billion in a month. Their monthly increase accounts for about 10% of all institutional holdings over three years. With such large funds continuously buying, the price obviously can’t fall. So, will they keep buying?
3. MicroStrategy’s current Bitcoin purchases are entirely funded by their STRC financing product, which has a dividend yield of 11.7%. They use ultra-high dividends to finance, borrowing to lend, betting that Bitcoin can keep rising indefinitely—extremely aggressive. If later they can’t pay the high dividends or continue financing, it would be bad...
4. MicroStrategy defaults, Bitcoin crashes. Of course, MicroStrategy can also sell Bitcoin to maintain cash flow, but selling might make things worse. So, the recent popular financial product of MicroStrategy has indeed pushed up the coin price, making it impossible to fall. But big problems could arise later, and that’s when Bitcoin’s bottom might appear.
5. In the short term, Bitcoin’s resistance is around $80k, which is the previous level of $79.5k. But MicroStrategy is going all-in, so the price might reach the next resistance at around $83k. I am long-term low-leverage short position, 2x won’t liquidate. No product only goes up; it’s already risen for 40 days straight. Chasing longs and catching the dip is impossible. The only remaining strategy is to carefully short on rallies.
6. As for ZEC, yesterday we shorted at 410. It broke through slightly but now has fallen back to 410. I decided to close most of the position at the original price, leaving a small part to re-enter around the more stable resistance at 460, to secure a position and wait.
7. Our crude oil short position has been very good; it’s fallen about 10% recently, reaching 98, and the profit is substantial. When it rebounds, say around 106 or 110, I think it’s still good to add to the position, continuously arbitraging, steady and cautious, opening positions daily.
