MatthewDixon

#ETH is showing some regular Bearish Divergence and so we can expect that $ETH price should decline soon but that does not negate the chance of a brief spike higher to liquidate shorts.
Overall though this is a textbook Bear Flag formation that should break down soon

Completed 5-wave impulse up for #XAU
From the left base -
Wave 1: Initial breakout from base
Wave 2: Pullback / higher low
Wave 3: Strong expansion
Wave 4: Sideways consolidation
Wave 5: Final push into blow-off top
This is textbook impulse behavior.
Wave 3 extended
Wave 4 sideways
Wave 5 momentum divergence where RSI confirms
We are now in an ABC correction
From the top:
A: Sharp selloff impulse down
B: Bounce back with lower high
C: Current leg down / grinding structure
Currently we are likely late B or early C and not a new bull yet because we have lower highs after the peak
Weak bounce st

What happens next? - THE FORK......
Not just #BTC but risk assets in general?
The entire market is basically waiting for one of two outcomes:
Bull continuation:
$BTC breaks $80K cleanly
Liquidity improves
Risk-on accelerates
OR
Rejection:
Fails at resistance
Macro tightens
Another leg down / extended chop
I am expecting 'rejection' but im not short yet. I am expecting a final little push higher but must admit DCA short is also an option - with stops of course.

Clear long-term bearish downtrend for #TROLL
From launch/early trading to now, price has made consistent lower highs and lower lows.
Even though it’s flattened recently, nothing on this chart yet breaks the macro trend.
There is possible bottoming for the last couple of months, price has gone sideways at very low levels.
with reduced volatility and repeated support holds.
That’s typical of accumulation or dead liquidity zones
The recent breakout attempt may be the first sign of life.
You can see a small impulse up in late April / early May where $TROLL broke slightly above the range highs but

LIGHT AT THE END OF THE RISK ASSET TUNNEL.
This is my preferred interpretation for #BTC (although there are other Alternatives)
However ALL the high probability alternates result in at least another $BTC leg lower imo.
As such I believe shorting is the best option from here but as always control your risk

Patience needed.
Although #BTC has seen a good reaction down from the minor double top we noted yesterday, there is still a good chance of a little push higher to tag the 100% extension over $BTC 80k
If achieved, that would be my ideal short entry with a sensible stop loss.

I believe this to be the correct EW count for #DXY as an expanded Flat correction 3,3,5.
On this basis I do expect a final low for the #Dollar before we get a concerted rise which may not be good for risk assets #BTC etc that tend to be inversely correlated.

Chart of the day #XAU/#BTC
It shows how many #Bitcoin it takes to buy #gold
If the line goes down $BTC is outperforming $gold
If the line goes up Gold is outperforming BTC
Clearly the long-term trend is DOWN from 2011 to now
Gold massively underperformed BTC
However, each cycle shows a bounce in gold vs BTC
Then a weaker rally each time
First bounce: +190%
Next: +23%
Next: +2.7%
This is critical imo
Every gold outperformance vs BTC is getting weaker with the chart is showing
Lower highs & flattening curve
With each rally getting smaller the trend slope is flattening from steep to almost flat

#XAU #Gold is still in a major uptrend
Short-term = cooling / sideways
Long-term = still structurally bullish
However, caution is warranted short term as the consolidation may continue to play out with the Macroeconomic and Geopolitical situation is uncertain

Thats a sharp sell off last night from a local double top on #BTC
We will get more from longer term $BTC later today but for now, the impulsive look of this move down does give be cause to focus, as I know we also have bearish divergence in place on the Daily chart.

Scrolling around I found this chart which certainly looks ominous.
Also I note a few Central Bank Heads stating that markets are overdue a correction.
We can’t fight the prevailing trend but we should be cautious

LONG TERM #ETH chart.
From the start we see a clean 5 wave movement to the first peak of the large double top.
We then have ABC correction down where C=A precisely.
This is followed by ABC higher to the 2nd double top peak (with Bearish Divergence)
The following move down to today seems incomplete.
In the later $ETH chart we will focus on this big leg down using a shorter timeframe to elucidate the internal EW count

Dashed red line target indicated for #SPX many months ago, now achieved
Wave 3 was precisely 2.618 x wave 1
The final 5th wave is itself broken into 5 waves and should be nearing completion
Bearish Divergence present
S&P500 and other stock #indices are flashing warning signs imo

We indicated the dashed red line target for #SPX many months ago (which we have now achieved)
wave 3 was precisely 2.618 x wave 1
The final 5th wave is itself broken into 5 waves and should be nearing completion.
S&P500 and other stock #indices are flashing warning signs imo

I was asked to post #WIF recently.
It appears to be in terminal decline and hopes for revival would depend on:
Meme cycle revival which could give high upside but has low probability in the current climate.
Triggers to watch for -
Volume returning
Meme sector rotates (#BONK/#PEPE type flows)
Break above $WIF 0.20
Then fast move to $0.30–0.50
If momentum builds even $0.60+ possible
BUT CHANCES ARE LOW imo

A LONG term view of #XAU shows some VERY INTERESTING FIB relationships.
Wave 3 and 5? precisely equal and both precisely #GoldenRatio 1.618 x wave 1
That would be unusual as you normally only get two FIB relationships in one cycle
We must therefore manage our risk very carefully as #GOLD may have peaked at the recent ATH

Devergences consistently showing the way (in advance) for #ETH
Highly likely we see another significant push down for $ETH which sadly means that there is likely no quick resolution for the geopolitical situations raging.

I have been calling for #BTC to tun lower from about $BTC 80k and we reached 79,500 which IS close enough BUT I would still PREFER a final little push higher to just surpass 80k (when I would jump in with short)
I tend to be more cautious when shorting and will not DCA but just take one small position if we achieve target

Updating #XAU
We can see that the proposed correction down is incomplete with the final C wave being made up of 5 waves in blue - wave 1 complete, a choppy overlapping wave 2, followed by wave 3 being EXACTLY 2.618 x wave 1, then wave 4 (showing perfect alternation with wave 2, and now working on final 5th wave down before higher again for #GOLD