Jamesvanst

The spread between $STRC vs $SATA has never been greater.
Market is saying STRC is going to 13%, it may even have to trade at a premium due to the convertible debt and less USD reserve to cover payments.

BTC/SPX ratio retested the 8 ratio breakout level from 2020, went straight through the floor in 2022.
It held in Jan 2024 (after the ETF launch), holding again for now.

Speculation is almost at all-time lows.

When you start to hear paradigm shifts that is when the top is in.
It happened with bitcoin and the "Infinite Money Glitch".
Gold and the "debasement trade".
Silver and the "shortage due to the AI buildout".
and now semis with a new paradigm
Everything is narrative driven.

Bitcoin is just above both the two biggest support levels, 200WMA ($61.3k) and realized price ($53.8k).
In 2015,2018 and 2022, bitcoin went straight through the realized price on the first go. This cycle it stayed above it, so far hasn't gotten near it.
Typically, in the deep part of the bear market, the realized price trends below the 200WMA, like in 2020 and 2022.
At this point it is definitely possible BTC can drop below the realized price but it looks different to 2022.

10.5M BTC sitting at a loss. Peak bear market levels.
As a result more supply is sitting at a loss than profit, they have now officially converged.

The capitulation candle in STRC has tended to mark a local low in bitcoin, as was the case late last week.
Meanwhile, STRC continues to produce higher lows even as bitcoin has trended lower over the past seven months.
STRC also bounced off its 200-day moving average.