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How Weekly Engine helps identify the Cycle Bottom.
A live case study: the end of the 2021-2023 bear market 👇

Global Risk On/Off remains Neutral/Mixed, but green is dominating the tape.
Strict Sync: +0.76
Live Now: +0.88
Coverage: 18/18
Equities are carrying the risk bid, led by Japan and US futures, while crypto is still the main drag.
Not full risk-on yet, but the balance is improving.
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Brent fell to $78 per barrel, declining for a fifth straight day and hitting its lowest level since early March. Prices came under further pressure from expectations of increased supply ahead of the signing of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran.

The market is in panic mode for the second time this year.
But Realized Loss tells a different story.
February peak: $2.6B.
June peak: $1.4B.
The second wave is almost twice as weak as the first.
Full breakdown in Morning Brief #193 👇

FOMC day.
Statement at 2:00 PM ET.
Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at 2:30 PM ET.
The rate decision matters, but the real focus is the tone: inflation, growth, and how much room the Fed leaves itself for the next move.

Decision Terminal v1.8 is now live.
The main question of the week: is this a regime shift or just intraday noise?
In v1.8, the weekly verdict, intraday context, cycle state, and risk-on/off are all brought together on one screen, so you do not confuse a bounce with a reversal or add risk without confirmation.

The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell to 4.44%, reaching its lowest level in the past month after the United States and Iran reached a peace agreement that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Against this backdrop, oil prices fell to a two-month low, easing concerns over inflationary pressure and reducing expectations of further monetary tightening.

Brent crude fell by more than 5%, dropping to $80 per barrel and hitting a two-month low. The decline came after the United States and Iran reached a peace agreement aimed at ending the conflict in the Middle East and reopening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by the end of the week.

Bitcoin bounced from $60K to $65.6K.
Funding Rate stayed positive for 10 straight days. Taker Buy Sell Ratio closed above 1.0 in 8 of the last 10 sessions.
Demand has returned to the market.
Why this matters for the next move, and why it could also be dangerous for the market: ☕️ Morning Brief 191 👇

Investors who saw gold as a safe-haven asset misjudged it slightly. Against that backdrop, Bitcoin looks more predictable, as its price action tends to follow bullish and bearish cycles around the halving.

Puell Multiple has fallen to 0.74, while miner revenues have contracted by 11% in just 10 days.
But the market still has not reached a capitulation on the scale of 2022.
Where is the line between stress and survival mode? In the new Morning Brief, we break down what is happening with miners right now and how their metrics compare with past cycles 👇

GLOBAL RISK OFF = -3.18
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The US Consumer Price Index (CPI), one of the key measures of inflation, rose to 4.2% year over year.
A month earlier, the figure stood at 3.8%.

Major Terminal v1.7 update.
We added the Cycle Radar tab - a panel designed to help you make better decisions: not sell at the cycle bottom, not buy at the peak, not fall for FUD, and not get caught in shakeouts during fake rallies.
Under the hood - on-chain and market data assembled into a convenient, easy-to-read dashboard.

The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index drops again.

$12B left the Bitcoin network over the past month.
Realized Cap: -1.1% over 30 days - the worst pace since March.
aSOPR has been below 1 for 13 straight days.
Every sale is happening at a loss.
Is this the bottom - or is capitulation only just beginning?
Morning Brief #188 👇

The market is pricing in Fed rate hikes again.
After the strong jobs report, swaps were fully pricing in a 25 bp hike by December. The probability of a hike as early as October rose to around 60%.
The 2-year UST yield climbed to 4.191%, its highest level in more than a year. The 10-year UST yield rose to 4.53-4.57%.
The short end of the curve is rising faster than the long end. The market is revising Fed expectations toward a tighter policy path.
For risk assets, this is negative: liquidity is becoming more expensive again.