According to publicly available information, Trump's "Freedom Plan" action was launched on May 4, 2026, and was announced to be paused on May 5. There are currently no specific arrangements regarding whether the plan will be restarted or continued. As for the upcoming Oman talks, there are no clear signs that Iran will easily back down. Iran has previously submitted a 14-point negotiation proposal to the United States through Pakistan. Although there have been concessions on some terms (such as no longer making the lifting of the maritime blockade by the U.S. a prerequisite for restarting negotiations), core demands like the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iran's surrounding areas and the lifting of sanctions remain unchanged. Iran's Supreme Leader's foreign affairs advisor, Velayati, explicitly stated that Iran and the U.S. are still in a state of war, and will continue to conduct "resistance," emphasizing that passage through the Strait of Hormuz must follow the rules set by Iran.
Regarding the next trend of crude oil and risk assets, the current situation is analyzed as follows:
Crude oil market: If U.S.-Iran negotiations make progress and geopolitical risk premiums decline, oil prices may fall from current high levels (such as Brent crude around $111 per barrel) to the $80-90 range; if negotiations break down or conflicts escalate, oil prices could further rise, even breaking through $130 per barrel, causing turbulence in the global energy market.
Risk assets: If the situation eases, global risk assets (such as stocks and high-yield bonds) may experience a corrective rebound; if conflicts intensify, risk assets will face selling pressure, market volatility will increase, and investors may shift to safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries.
Regarding the next trend of crude oil and risk assets, the current situation is analyzed as follows:
Crude oil market: If U.S.-Iran negotiations make progress and geopolitical risk premiums decline, oil prices may fall from current high levels (such as Brent crude around $111 per barrel) to the $80-90 range; if negotiations break down or conflicts escalate, oil prices could further rise, even breaking through $130 per barrel, causing turbulence in the global energy market.
Risk assets: If the situation eases, global risk assets (such as stocks and high-yield bonds) may experience a corrective rebound; if conflicts intensify, risk assets will face selling pressure, market volatility will increase, and investors may shift to safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries.
