Jefferies expects memory prices to rise 40–50% QoQ in Q3 2026, followed by another 30–40% QoQ increase in Q4 2026

$MU is guiding for $31 EPS in calendar Q3 2026
If prices rise another 35% and then remain stable through 2027, Micron would be trading at less than 7x 2027 EPS
However, Jefferies is even more optimistic than that
For 2027, Jefferies expects memory pricing to remain 40–45% higher YoY. Relief is not expected until 2028, when new capacity could add 15–20% supply, although the article says this may not fully offset AI and compute demand
Realistically, Micron may be trading at less than 5x 2027 EPS, with Hynix and Samsung even below that, depending on how SCAs have been negotiated
The article also says around 50% of total memory capacity is already under long-term contracts, potentially rising to 70%, which would reduce available supply for PCs, smartphones, consoles, and other consumer markets
On China, the article argues that CXMT and YMTC are unlikely to pressure global memory prices in 2026–2027, because Chinese supply is mostly domestic and not meaningfully cheaper. It says China may become more relevant in 2028 as new fabs and production lines ramp up