#比特币支撑阻力位分析 BTC reaches new highs, long and short positions both liquidate—which direction will major players choose before the rate decision?

Currently, there is disagreement between bulls and bears regarding the descending flag pattern:
Bears believe the pattern is complete and will decline after consolidation;
Bulls argue that a complete pattern hasn't formed and spot buying support remains effective. We won't speculate on specific price action, only deploy the most reasonable trading strategies based on structural trends.
Bitcoin key support and resistance levels: From a technical perspective, current support levels are 73.8k as the primary support, 72.9k as secondary support, and 70.4k as strong support, while resistance levels above are: 74.4k as the primary level, 75.8k-76.7k as secondary levels, and 76k-78k as strong resistance.
Short-term trading signals appeared yesterday evening. From the hourly chart perspective, if a short position was already deployed around 75-76k yesterday evening, you can appropriately reduce positions to lock in profits. For those not yet entered, watch for hourly-level consolidation above 74.5k to add small long positions, or go short if it breaks below 73.8k with failed rebounds.
4-hour level: Breaking 73.5k will test 72.9k-72.2k; if it holds, expect consolidation awaiting the meeting catalyst.
Deriving message-driven impact on trend forecasting and trading perspectives
1 Federal Reserve rate decision scenario forecasting:
Hawkish surprise: BTC breaks below 73.8k, tests 72.9k-72.2k, possible drop below 60k if the rally point breaks.
Hawkish as expected: Range consolidation, subsequent rebound testing resistance supported by spot buying.
Hawkish underperformance: Breaks through 74.4k, charges 76k, or triggers a new round of gamma squeeze.
Trading strategy and risk warnings
Bitcoin bulls may have positioning potential at 72.9k-73.8k, but the cost-benefit is not attractive. We prefer a high-level short strategy.
Final summary: Bitcoin is at the eve of macro catalysts and a technical battleground between longs and shorts. The 75k breakout was sentiment-driven; the Fed meeting is the core trigger to break the consolidation.
Short-term consolidation around 73.8k-74.4k, medium to long-term ETF funds and whale holdings provide support, macroeconomic policy determines directional trends. Trading should follow key price levels, plan strategies in advance, avoid emotional interference, and continuously track policy and capital flow changes.