Commodities (Crude Oil & Copper) & Macro Outlook

On April 17, just before Iran re-opened the Strait of Hormuz, a sell-off of $760 million in crude oil futures indicated potential insider trading amid rising U.S.-Israel-Iran tensions. The CFTC is investigating these trading spikes linked to policy shifts.

Hussein Ezzi, a senior Houthi official, warned that the Strait of Hormuz could be closed if peace efforts are obstructed, urging the U.S. and allies to stop actions hindering peace, highlighting the strait's significance as a maritime corridor.

Alcoa plans to sell its dormant Massena East aluminum smelter in New York to bitcoin miner NYDIG, with the deal closing by mid-2026. The facility's infrastructure makes it ideal for bitcoin mining, reflecting a trend of repurposing retired industrial sites.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz will halt the export of about 4 million barrels of Iraqi crude oil in the coming three days, according to an Iraqi Oil Ministry official.

Iran is utilizing Bitcoin for oil transit fee settlements via the Strait of Hormuz, but stablecoins dominate actual fund transfers in these transactions.

The Trump-Iran war has severely disrupted global oil supply, cutting over 500 million barrels and causing $50 billion in losses in seven weeks. Analysts predict prolonged impacts on supply chains, with significant recovery delays expected.

Bitcoin rose to $78,000 but dropped to $76,091 following reports of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's actions triggered $762 million in liquidations among traders, with implications for crypto markets as Iran accepts payments in bitcoin and other currencies to navigate sanctions.

China's clean energy exports surged in March, with solar cell exports up 80% and EVs rising 53%, fueled by global demand amidst oil supply issues. However, domestic overcapacity and international tariffs pose challenges to the industry's growth.

India's Foreign Ministry summoned Iran's ambassador to protest IRGC naval attacks on Indian-flagged ships in the Strait of Hormuz, demanding an explanation. One ship carrying crude oil was damaged, but all crew members are safe.

Iran's Foreign Minister affirmed the Strait of Hormuz is open to commercial shipping, ensuring freedom of navigation amid regional tensions, crucial for global oil exports.

UBS analysts predict the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points by 2026, despite rising energy prices. Fed Chairman Powell suggests limited tightening is needed, focusing on core inflation evidence before cuts. The forecast for Treasury yields indicates potential downward movement.

The U.S. Treasury renewed a sanctions waiver for Russian oil purchases through May 16, despite prior indications of no renewal. This led to sharp declines in Brent crude prices, provoking criticism from European officials and highlighting geopolitical tensions.

Turkey and Iran have not yet begun negotiations to renew their natural gas contract expiring in 2026, as stated by Turkish Energy Minister Bayraktar. Currently, Iran exports 9.6 billion cubic meters annually, but Turkey's actual imports were only 7.6 billion cubic meters last year.

On April 18, Ukraine's Armed Forces targeted four significant Russian oil facilities, including refineries and a transshipment terminal, aimed at disrupting fuel supplies to Russian forces. The damage assessment is ongoing, with no response from Russia yet.

The Strait of Hormuz was closed again because the U.S. side failed to fulfill its obligations under the agreement, and Iran needs to re-approve the passage of vessels. Trump said the negotiations are going well, but the issue of handling nuclear material remains the main point of disagreement. With the ceasefire deadline approaching, he hinted that it may not be extended, raising fears of a renewed attack. The situation is tense, and it could have far-reaching effects on the energy market.

The U.S. Department of Energy will loan over 26 million barrels of crude oil to nine companies, marking the third release of strategic reserves since the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict began, aimed at moderating oil prices. Delivery is set for May and June 2026.

President Trump announced that U.S. negotiations about a potential conflict with Iran will persist over the weekend. He firmly denied any possibility of Iran imposing tolls on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. is contemplating increased uranium imports from Namibia to support nuclear energy for AI data centers, as China dominates Namibia's uranium sector. Rising uranium prices are reviving mining interests, despite water supply challenges in the arid region.

Gate News message, April 18 — U.S. stock indices closed sharply higher on April 17, with the S&P 500 rising 1.2% to 7,126.06, the Nasdaq Composite gaining 1.52% to 24,468.48, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing 1.79% to 49,447.43. The Nasdaq extended its winning streak to 13 consecutive tr

In 2026, the aviation industry faces a crisis as three airlines, EcoJet UK, Royal Air Philippines, and Dove Airlines, entered administration or liquidation due to soaring jet fuel prices linked to geopolitical tensions. This has led to thousands of flight cancellations and increased operational costs for remaining carriers.