$1.10 XRP, still waiting for lower?
First, look at the surface: a bunch of good news, but the price just won't go up.
Over the past year, it has fallen more than 50%, from the high of 3.65, halved and halved again. In June, it dropped from 1.30 to 1.04, a cumulative decline of 20%. Although it rose 5.7% in the past week, it's still miserable compared to the all-time high.
First thing: Institutions are buying like crazy, while retail investors are despairingly cutting losses.
In June, ETFs for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana saw over $5 billion withdrawn by institutions. But since its launch in November 2025, the XRP spot ETF has seen cumulative net inflows exceed $1.48 billion. On July 2 alone, the XRP ETF had net inflows of $6.55 million, nearly three times that of Solana and HYPE. Goldman Sachs alone holds $153.8 million worth of the XRP ETF.
Second thing: A technical signal has appeared that must be taken seriously.
The SuperTrend indicator — a volatility-based trend-following tool — turned bullish for the first time since June 14. On the 4-hour chart, this is the first buy signal in three weeks.
At the same time, XRP has formed a series of higher lows above $1: 1.0552, 1.0589, 1.0799. Volume is 26.92% above the 7-day average, peaking at 142% of the 24-hour average.
The resistance zone of 1.10-1.1087 has blocked every rebound. The 50-day moving average is pressing down hard around 1.21. RSI is only 45, and the MACD histogram is nearly zero.
Buyers are testing but not attacking with full force. The price is oscillating between 1.08 and 1.10, with neither bulls nor bears giving in.
Third thing: The biggest catalyst has been delayed.
The CLARITY Act — the bill that would permanently classify XRP as a commodity under US law — has had its Senate vote delayed to late July or August.
On Polymarket, the probability of the bill passing this year has dropped from over 70% in May to 42%.
Bulls vs. Bears, you decide
On one side:
XRP ETF cumulative inflows of $1.48 billion, institutions adding positions against the trend
SuperTrend issued a buy signal for the first time in three weeks
New wallet creation hits a 14-week high, social sentiment the most optimistic in three months
Retail investors are down 47%, historically such extreme situations often foreshadow a rebound
On the other side:
The 1.10-1.12 resistance just won't break
The 50-day and 200-day moving averages are all overhead
The CLARITY Act passage probability is only 42%
Down more than 50% over the past year, the trend is still bearish
Key levels:
Upper lifeline: 1.10-1.12. If it breaks through on volume, target 1.18-1.20 or even the 50-day moving average at 1.21.
Lower defense line: 1.08. If it breaks, see 1.0611; break again, the psychological level of $1 may not hold.
For those already holding positions and underwater:
Wait for a volume breakthrough at 1.10-1.12 to add positions and lower cost; if it breaks 1.08, exit to take shelter, then re-enter at 1.00-1.04.
For those with no positions or light positions:
Build positions in batches at 1.04-1.07, stop loss at 0.98. First target 1.10-1.12, after breakout look at 1.18-1.20.
For futures traders:
Leverage not exceeding 3x. Hold if 1.08 doesn't break; leave immediately if it does.
For long-term believers:
Dollar-cost average blindly below $1. XRP's ETF channel is already open, institutions are continuously buying, the CLARITY Act is just a matter of time.
XRP now is like itself in 2023—
Everyone was calling it a "lawsuit coin" and "garbage," but after the SEC lawsuit ended, the price went directly from $0.5 to $3.65.
$1.10 XRP, do you think it's expensive?
A year ago at 3.65 you chased highs, now at 1.10 you dare not buy.
Retail investors always do one thing: greedy at highs, fearful at lows.
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