5.11-5.15 Weekly Summary This week is coming to an end, and as usual, I will give everyone a summary of the market trend and the current situation. Let's talk about the market first, taking Bitcoin's 4-hour chart as an example, it is clearly visible that the overall trend is moving in a pattern of rising sharply, then lacking the strength to continue, gradually retracing. Regarding the 82,000 breakout point, although there were multiple attempts to push higher during the pullback, the trading volume did not significantly increase, which led to subsequent resistance from the bears. The turning point occurred on Friday evening after the US stock market opened lower, with bullish sentiment rising, coupled with the deadlock in the US-Iran situation, creating a delicate atmosphere. Under these multiple influences, Bitcoin broke below the 80,000 level, and even during Saturday's market closure, it fell below 78,000, hitting a recent low of 77,601. Next is the general situation of the current market, actually I already warned everyone on Monday that after the price stagnated above 82,000, if the trading volume couldn't pick up, the subsequent trend would mainly be a retest. This week’s market was also dominated by bears, with the only bullish signal being the short-term rebound when the price broke below 80,000 on Friday. This naturally made me think deeply—bullish sentiment clearly increased, and the short-term bullish positions should have been exited earlier. This also reflects the importance of following the trend and not holding onto positions blindly, so future market actions need to be more flexible and decisive. There has never been a perfect strategy, nor can we achieve a 100% success rate. Every review I do with everyone still has room for improvement. Since the partners trust me, I must also take the responsibility that comes with it. #Gate广场五月交易分享

Daily Learning 👀 — Bitcoin - MVRV Z-Score 🤌 The MVRV Z-Score is a classic on-chain valuation indicator for Bitcoin, used to measure the deviation of the current market price from the actual cost basis of holders, and through statistical normalization, to identify extreme overbought or oversold regions. The green line (MVRV Score) spikes significantly at the peaks of previous bull markets (such as 2013, 2017, 2021) (often >5-10), followed by sharp price corrections. The yellow line (BTC price) is highly correlated with the green line, especially in the late stages of a bull market when the green line surges, and the price also peaks. During bear market bottoms, the green line often drops below zero or even negative, indicating an undervalued zone. 💰 Reference value for Bitcoin investment: ① Identifying bull market tops (sell/trim signals): When the Z-Score > 5~7 (or even higher), historically it consistently corresponds to extreme overvaluation in the market, often marking the top of a bull cycle (such as late 2017, late 2021). At this point, speculative sentiment is overheated, and profit-taking risks are high. Many long-term holders gradually realize profits in this region. ② Identifying bear market bottoms (buy/accumulation signals): When the Z-Score < 0 (or even lower), it indicates that the current price is far below most holders' cost basis, representing a severely undervalued zone. Historically, this has been an excellent long-term buying opportunity (such as at the bottoms of 2015, 2019, 2022), often leading to a new bull run afterward. ③ Judging the current cycle position (neutral/fair value zone): Around 0~3 is usually considered "fair value" or mid-cycle in a bull market, neither extremely overvalued nor undervalued, suitable for holding or operating based on other indicators. Currently (around May 2026), based on public data, the Z-Score is around 0.9~1 (BTC price about $80k), in a relatively neutral/slightly overvalued state but far from the previous cycle's top levels, indicating the cycle has not yet entered the final euphoria phase. 🤔 In summary, the MVRV Z-Score is one of Bitcoin’s “thermometers”—when high, beware of bubbles; when low, consider dollar-cost averaging. The current chart shows it remains in a relatively moderate position historically. For medium- to long-term Bitcoin investors, there is still a reasonable safety margin, but continuous monitoring for rapid surges into high-risk zones is necessary. #Gate广场五月交易分享