Remain in cash and continue waiting for the new cycle. Attached is the core market strategy for April 3rd.

If you friends find the article helpful, feel free to give it a one-click triple: like it, cheer it on, and donate. 100 points (2 yuan) isn’t enough to cover the minimum trading fee, but it can make my articles rank higher, meet more great friends, and help me write even more精彩 articles.[Taoguba]

The essence of short-term trading is to “borrow momentum to make quick money”—borrow the heat of themes, borrow the collective strength of capital, and borrow the momentum inertia of trends.

You must stick to three iron rules:

Only trade strength; don’t copy weakness;

Go long online, stand by offline. If the price breaks the line,撤—exit immediately. Move fast in and out;

Focus on the core, stay away from random laggards.

1. What is the core, and what are the random laggards.

2. How to identify and trade the “core”?

Step 1: Pin down the strongest sector of the day

After 30 minutes from the open, check the “sector gainers ranking” on Eastmoney or iFinD (Tonghuashun).
Exclude one-day wonder themes; choose sectors with policies, events, and sustained logic catalysts.
Look for sectors where the number of limit-up stocks is ≥3, and the ladder is intact (with first boards and second boards).

Step 2: Find the core within the strongest sector

Space leader: the stock with the highest number of consecutive limit-ups in the sector (e.g., a 5-limit board).
Popularity leader: the stock with the largest trading volume in the sector and the highest discussion level (not necessarily the one with the most consecutive limit-ups).
Trend leader: the mid-cap flagship that moves steadily upward along the 5-day/10-day moving averages within the sector.

Step 3: The ultimate discipline of “focusing on the core”

Buy only the first place: when conditions allow, buy only the stock with the highest status within the sector. If you’re afraid to buy the leader, it’s better not to trade this sector at all.

Buy in disagreement, sell in agreement:

Buy point: when the core leader first experiences a healthy divergence (e.g., after a sharp early selloff it’s quickly pulled back above the moving average; or after a failed board it quickly reclaims the limit).
Sell point: after the core leader accelerates into a consensus bullish view (e.g., after consecutive one-price limit-ups, the first time it surges on heavy volume; or when a high-level stock releases a huge volume and stalls).
If it breaks the board, leave immediately: for consecutive-limit leaders, if it can’t hit limit-up on the day (breaks the board), and it doesn’t reclaim the limit the next day, exit right away—no fantasies.

3. How to completely “stay away from random laggards”?

Active blocking: in your watchlist, only keep core candidates; don’t look at stocks on later pages of the gainers ranking.
Refuse temptation: when you see a random laggard suddenly rip higher in a straight line, ask yourself: “Is it a leader? If not, why is it being pumped?” (The answer is usually: to distribute shares.)
Position constraints: even if you want to test a random laggard with a tiny position, you must strictly cap any single random laggard position at no more than 2% of total capital—mechanically preventing the possibility of a big loss.
Post-trade reflection: if the loss today came from random laggards, record it as a priority in your trading log to strengthen the “random laggards = losses” muscle memory.

Core playbook

In the short-term market, capital and attention are scarce resources—always gather only where it’s most eye-catching. “Core” enjoys liquidity premium and sentiment premium; “random laggards” bear liquidity discount and fear of selling pressure. Your job isn’t to dig for undervaluation, but to dance with the market’s strongest capital in plain sight—and leave first before the music changes.

Remember: in short-term trading, every moment of pity and luck you give to random laggards is betrayal of your principal. The biggest profits come from the core; the biggest losses also often come from being unwilling to cut losses on random laggards.

Friends, if this article helps you, please cheer it on so it becomes a featured high-quality post sooner. Only when the article’s data is good enough to rank at the front can you apply for more opportunities like live sessions to learn knowledge from.
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With only a few stocks to choose from each day, memorizing the buy points isn’t that hard—if not, you can just buy while looking at it in real time during the day; if there’s a buy point in the strategy, then you buy. If there isn’t, you stay empty. It’s more efficient than what most people do every day, busy themselves with this and that.**
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Many friends ask why I don’t go into this stock or that stock. If I don’t go, it’s either because it doesn’t meet the conditions of my model strategy, or it isn’t in my model, or because the risk-reward ratio is low and it’s only suitable for watching. Trading stocks isn’t something where you have only one buy-sell deal in a lifetime; it’s a long-term, continuously repeated operating pattern. So you need to treat it like a math problem: make sure your long-term win rate * risk-reward ratio can achieve the maximum value, instead of gambling on just one factor or relying on luck to scrape through every trade.**

Just like how different friends always ask me how I manage to hold back my hand: this week, if you can resolutely follow the plan and stay in cash instead of making moves, you’ll find your mindset will change. Everything is hard at the beginning—hardness lies in whether you can take the first step, and whether you can stick with it.

Dragon A-blank-blank dragon, it’s blank-blank-blank control the drawdown properly, ensuring that every time the dragon comes you participate in time.
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Current holdings: in cash**
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Yesterday’s strategy:**

1 Tianjin Yaoye (津药药业) accelerated on shrinking volume with a one-price limit. The risk is getting higher and higher now. The risk-reward ratio is no longer proportionate, so clearly the main stance is to stand by/observe. PASS

2 Tongda Shares (通达股份) and Xinghui Chemical Fiber Materials (星辉环材) both advanced. But today why is the stance still clearly to observe? Because when a new cycle truly gets underway, making an extra profit for one day or missing one day doesn’t matter much—the real big meat is ahead. Before that new cycle breaks out, there will be a steady stream of stocks that attempt and fail. Those are the source of big hits. To take the risk of eating a bunch of big losses just to make money for one extra day—this risk-reward ratio, I believe everyone can calculate it. Many friends lose big and win small because they can’t work out this piece of certain arithmetic.

Tomorrow’s strategy:
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Today’s market outlook (April 2)**
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1. Positioning the sentiment cycle**

Today the market opened lower and trended down under external geopolitical disturbance, producing a “shrinking-volume broad sell-off” pattern. Short-term sentiment shows a split: “weak indices, strong local pooling.” The Shanghai Composite closed at 3919.29 points, down 0.74%; the Shenzhen Component fell 1.60%; the ChiNext Index dropped 2.31%. Total trading value across both markets was 1.86 trillion yuan, about 167 billion yuan less than yesterday. Over the entire market, more than 4200 stocks fell; the number of limit-up stocks was 31, and limit-down stocks was 16. (On the main board: 27 limit-ups, 5 limit-downs)

The core sentiment indicators show the market is in “the late stage of a retreating tide, where structural consolidation and repair happen”:

Index under pressure; high-level pooling strengthens: the market-wide advance/decline ratio is about 1:4, yet the consecutive-limit-up advancement rate is as high as 80% (on the previous trading day, 5 consecutive-limit stocks and 4 advanced). The highest board in the market was Tianjin Yaoye (津药药业), advancing to a 5-consecutive-limit board. However, the 1-to-2 advancement rate is extremely low. The market lacks fresh, energetic low-level ladder candidates.

Capital behavior: risk-avoidance style pooling. Major funds sharply flowed into defensive sectors such as Oilfield Service Engineering (油服工程), pharmaceutical distribution, and chemical pharmaceuticals (化学制药). With the index weak, short-term capital has nowhere to go, so it’s forced to concentrate around the only highest-space board with strong identification—Tianjin Yaoye (津药药业). This creates the illusion of a high “consecutive-limit-up advancement rate,” but it is not a healthy spread of sentiment.

Cycle judgment: this isn’t a full-on assault of a primary uptrend. It’s the passive pooling by funds in the late retreat phase toward a local direction (pharmaceuticals), plus an oil-and-gas sector pulse driven by an external event (Middle East situation). The market shows a distorted structure of “hot at high levels, frozen in mid and low levels.” The foundation for sentiment repair is extremely fragile. We are currently in a “chaotic trial-and-error phase.” Once the core of the pooling loosens, sentiment may quickly fall back.

2. Analysis of consecutive-limit-up ladders and the core main line

Consecutive-limit-up ladder (expands to 5 boards; a preliminary pharmaceutical ladder forms but the structure is distorted)

Today there are 6 consecutive-limit stocks in total, with an advancement rate of 80% (excluding ST stocks).

5-board (overall market top dragon):

Tianjin Yaoye (600488): chemical pharmaceuticals + innovative drugs. The only space high in the market. Today it accelerated with a one-price limit-up, advancing to a 5-board, becoming the absolute core of risk-avoidance pooling by short-term funds.

3-board (3 stocks):

Tongda Shares (002560): power grid equipment + commercial aerospace. Stimulated by news about the launch of a new generation lunar rocket by the U.S. and SpaceX IPO.

Xinghui Chemical Fiber Materials (300834): chemical materials + bringing in a strategic investor. A 20CM three-board streak in the ChiNext.

Xin Zhonggang (605162): combined heat and power + electricity.

2-board (2 stocks):

Beida Pharma (000788): chemical pharmaceuticals. High follower intensity in the pharmaceutical sector.

Yibai Pharmaceutical (600594): traditional Chinese medicine. High follower intensity in the pharmaceutical sector.

High-level trend core:

Taineng Taishan (新能泰山) (000720): 8 days, 6 boards. Power + fiber concept trend leader.

Zhongli Group (中利集团) (002309): 10 days, 6 boards. Fiber + photovoltaic equipment trend leader.

Core observation: the market’s consecutive-limit height is opened by Tianjin Yaoye (5 boards). The ladder initially forms around the pharmaceutical sector (5/2/first board). But the 3-board theme is dispersed (power grid, chemicals, power), and the 1-to-2 advancement rate is very low. This shows funds only dare to pool around a high-level, clearly marked leader and don’t want to test in mid/low levels. Market consensus is fragile—structure heavy at the top and light at the bottom.

Market main-line analysis (pharmaceutical pooling continues; oil-and-gas driven by events; growth sector retreat)

Strongest main line: pharmaceuticals (innovative drugs/chemical pharmaceuticals)

Driver: overseas authorization boom for innovative drugs, expectations of favorable industry policies, and improved performance growth for the first quarter.

Performance: sector rises against the trend. The leader Tianjin Yaoye (5 boards) accelerates with one-price limit-ups, and Beida Pharma and Yibai Pharma (2 boards) follow as followers. This is a typical “weakness risk-avoidance pooling” market.

Secondary main line: oil and gas extraction and services

Driver: Trump makes tough remarks toward Iran; international oil prices surge sharply, lifting the geopolitical risk premium.

Performance: a breakout-limit-up wave across the sector; multiple stocks like Blue Flame Holding (蓝焰控股) and Beiken Energy (贝肯能源) hit limit-ups. This is a typical event-driven pulse market, and continuity is questionable.

Rotation supporting line:

Fiber/optical communications: Taineng Taishan (8 days, 6 boards) and Zhongli Group (10 days, 6 boards) hit limit-ups, belonging to independent stock trends.

Retreat direction:

AI computing power, semiconductors: the sector adjusts collectively, showing reduced market risk appetite.

Conclusion: the market is in a pattern of “pharmaceutical pooling” + “oil-and-gas pulses,” while most sectors fall. This isn’t the start of a new cycle—it’s risk-avoidance behavior from the late phase of an old cycle’s retreat. The market lacks a new main line with both continuity and broad diffusion.

3. Key observation anchors (tomorrow’s sentiment litmus test)

Tomorrow is the key day to test the “quality” of this “fragile pooling.” We need to closely watch three anchors:

Anchor 1: Strength and sustainability of the pooling core

Watch target: Tianjin Yaoye (space dragon).

Observation logic: all short-term sentiment right now hinges on Tianjin Yaoye. Its performance will decide whether the pooling trend continues or collapses.

Key signals:

Strong signal: Tianjin Yaoye continues to strengthen and advances to a 6-board (even if volume increases but rotation turnover succeeds).

Weak signal: after the stock opens its board, it sharply dumps or breaks the board—this will directly cause high-level pooling to unravel, and sentiment could retreat quickly.

Anchor 2: Whether the market-wide “losing money effect” spreads

Watch targets: number of limit-down stocks across both markets; performance of yesterday’s limit-up stocks.

Observation logic: if the index continues to adjust, we need to observe whether the losing-money effect spreads from high levels to mid and low levels.

Key signals: limit-down count can it fall to within 10, and no core popularity stock shows an A-shaped selloff pattern.

Anchor 3: Whether new directions attempt to absorb capital

Watch targets: oil-and-gas sector (Blue Flame Holding), and 2-board advancing stocks (Beida Pharma, Yibai Pharma).

Observation logic: check whether oil-and-gas is a one-day wonder or can sustain; check whether pharmaceutical follower stocks can advance and form sector support.

4. Tomorrow’s strategy and risk-control plan

1. Buy/sell strategy for core targets
   (1) Overall market top dragon: Tianjin Yaoye (600488)

Positioning: the market’s only space board (5 boards), the only core of pooling for short-term sentiment.

Tomorrow’s sell points (if already holding):

Specific operation: if tomorrow it isn’t a one-price limit at the open, and within 15 minutes after the open it can’t strongly lock the board, or after it locks the board it fails and the intraday time-and-sales chart lacks strength to reclaim the close, sell immediately.

Tomorrow’s buy points (only for “entertainment position” limit-up confirmation; extremely high risk):

Market conditions: number of limit-down stocks at the open is less than 5.

Sector conditions: in the pharmaceutical sector, at least 2 stocks quickly hit limit-up at the open (non-ST), forming a weak sector effect.

Individual stock conditions:

Call auction: a high open + more than 5%, and trading value greater than 1.2 billion yuan. If it opens with a one-price limit-up, then主动放弃排板 (give up placing a buy order for the board; the follow-up risk after continuous shrinkage volume is huge).

Intraday: after the open, intraday strength is firm; the rally is smooth; and pullbacks do not break below that day’s intraday moving average line.

Price-volume core: it must go through huge turnover. The成交额 (trading value) at the exact moment of the limit-up must reach at least 300% of yesterday’s成交额 (0.94 billion yuan)—about 2.8 billion yuan—to fully digest profit-taking supply.

Final buy point: only consider entering by hitting the limit-up board instantaneously after meeting all the conditions above.

(2) All other consecutive-limit stocks (Beida Pharma, Yibai Pharma, Tongda Shares, etc.)

Strategy: do not participate in all of them. In the market structure of “pooling at high levels, frozen mid and low levels,” participating in any mid-tier position relay that isn’t the highest label has a very poor risk-reward ratio—it’s “picking chestnuts from the fire.”

5. Risk-control discipline (crucial for the current stage)

The market’s nature right now is a pooling rebound in a retreating tide, not a primary bull run. Risk must be tightly controlled.

Cash-only conditions (if any one is met, stay in cash and observe):

Tianjin Yaoye’s call auction is hit with a “nuke” (low open - more than 5%).

The number of limit-down stocks at the market open exceeds 15.

There are no limit-up assistances (any) in the pharmaceutical sector at the open.

Understanding the stock market is also a complete journey—from seeking outward exploration to inward cultivation, ultimately discerning the relationship among “trend, me, and the way.” Below are five progressively deeper stages of enlightenment.

First stage: seeing ups and downs, greed and fear are born—“Ups and downs are ordinary; greed and fear intertwine in secret.”

State: new to the market; your eyes are entirely on the K-line red/green and your account’s unrealized gains/losses. When it rises, you’re ecstatic; when it falls, you panic. Your emotions are completely driven by the market. Chasing and killing are all motivated by the words “greed and fear.”

Mindset: at this point you are a slave to emotions, and your behavior is a conditional reflex to market fluctuations. “When luck is gone, heroes aren’t free” — in a downtrend (“when luck is gone”), any struggle may lead to even greater losses, feeling not free.

Second stage: recognize yourself, defeat the mind thief—“If the heart isn’t dead, the way won’t be born; if desire isn’t extinguished, the way won’t exist.”

State: after repeated losses, you begin to reflect and realize the biggest enemy isn’t the market—it’s your own greed and fear. You start learning to cut losses, control impulses, and attempt to build trading discipline. This is the beginning of “killing the killing mind” (killing the impulsive heart) and “extinguishing desire” (turning off excessive greed).

Mindset: shift your focus from external market movements to examining your internal wants and emotions. You understand that only by first mastering your own heart can you talk about mastering the market. This is the foundation of enlightenment.

Third stage: learn techniques, follow trends—“Obey heaven’s timing; trend is the root. Those who swim against the current drown; those who follow the current live.”

State: after your mindset becomes initially calmer, you systematically learn analytical methods and try to decode the market’s language. The core takeaway is understanding the power of “trend.” You no longer try to fight the tide; instead you learn to identify “timing” and “the big trend.”

Mindset: you begin to experience “when the time is right, heaven and earth lend strength”—when you can see and align with the trend, you feel help everywhere, and your operations flow smoothly. At the same time, you revere “when luck is gone, heroes aren’t free,” and in adverse trends you learn to stop and observe rather than show off by forcing it.

Fourth stage: integrate knowledge and action, waiting for the wind to come—“K-lines are like a chessboard viewed from outside; when the tide rises and falls, your mind stays peaceful.”

State: technology and discipline become internalized into instinct; your mindset grows stable. You can calmly see the market as a chess game—you are a combination of an observer and a player. You deeply understand the periodicity of “force” and “luck,” and you don’t get anxious about missing or waiting; instead you focus on the opportunities that belong to you, opportunities you can borrow “force” from.

Mindset: you reach the state of “ups and downs ride the waves; floating and sinking are shared with the city dust. Sun and clouds may be unsettled, but the heart stays still and water flows deep.” You have your own convictions and don’t drift with the crowd. You patiently wait for the time when “heaven and earth lend strength” to appear.

Ultimate stage: the way is natural, in harmony with the market—“If desire isn’t extinguished, the way doesn’t exist; if the time hasn’t arrived, force won’t fight.”

State: this is the realm of enlightenment. The “self” that fights the market is completely dissolved; desires become pure compliance with “the way” (market laws). Trading requires no forcing. When you should go in, you go in; when you should retreat, you retreat—natural as breathing. You deeply understand that “time” (opportunity) is the pivot of “luck” (stored energy/potential). You don’t waste a soldier in a market that isn’t “freedom,” and you only exert full effort when “heaven and earth lend strength.”

Mindset: you achieve transcendence from “hero” (relying on personal ability) to “sage” (aligning with natural laws). The market, the self, and the rules merge into one. This is “inaction with no lack of accomplishment” in the stock market: don’t act rashly, so there is no failure; follow the great trend, so success comes.

A complete journey of stock-market enlightenment is a process of cyclical upward ascent:

It starts with entanglement of greed and fear in “seeing mountains as mountains” (seeing ups and downs) → through the self-battle of “seeing mountains as not mountains” (defeating the heart thief) → arriving at “seeing water as water” by following the trend (learning trends) → finally returning to the natural way of “seeing mountains again as mountains” (in harmony with the market).

Its core truth is hidden in these two lines of poetry and Daoist wisdom: externally cultivate the art of “following trends” (when time is right, heaven and earth lend strength); internally cultivate the heart of “no-self” (if desire isn’t extinguished, the way doesn’t exist). When the inner mind becomes clear and unobstructed, you can reflect the “time” and “luck/energy” of heaven and earth clearly, thereby reaching true “freedom.”

I came to Taoxian to exchange ideas with more people. If you’re a newbie, you can get experience content from me that other bloggers don’t easily talk about. If you’re a高手, our mutual交流 will help both sides become stronger. Giving is mutual—your support (likes, donations, cheering) can help my posts get more exposure and rank higher, so I can exchange with more people, become even stronger, and write you more knowledge. Wishing that in the days ahead, everyone can keep exchanging and learning more together!
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Thanks to @张十三1688 for being the top donator yesterday.**
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The gold dust has already been returned—going forward, we’ll exchange more and learn from each other, and I’ll also prioritize answering questions about trading: @蜡笔小金金 @它山玉**
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Thank you to the 20 friends from yesterday who supported with donations: @张十三1688 @天体二十九 @王爱玉 @灏渺 @福星高曌 @静听潮起潮落 @野区没有野玫瑰 @老倒霉蛋咯 @悟道好 @永动机0668 @baijie白杰 @YSY暴富 @二手道士 @蜡笔小金金 @冰山续集 @飞飞飞大 @不想销户 @任永达5953 @它山玉 @嗯暴力, as well as to these 8 friends for cheering support: @小老鼠142 @不想销户 @夜莺 @蜡笔小金金 @Shmily96 @天体二十九 @它山玉 @冰山续集.**

Disclaimer: The individual stocks and viewpoints involved do not constitute investment advice; they are only my personal recap notes. Trading based on this is your own responsibility for gains and losses. (The stock market has risk; investing requires caution.)