Rise above $200! European diesel futures hit a new high since 2022, and the refined oil crisis is worsening.

Due to the Middle East conflict, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted, and the global fuel market is facing a severe supply shock.

European diesel futures prices jumped on Thursday to the highest level since 2022. In the London market intraday, they briefly touched $1,493.25 per metric ton, equivalent to more than $200 per barrel, up 9.4%. Due to the interruption of shipping through the strait, the movement of refined products such as diesel has nearly come to a standstill, and some refineries have also been forced to cut production because crude oil imports are restricted. Global traders are stepping up the redeployment of resources, and multiple diesel cargoes have already been diverted.

The tight supply situation has drawn widespread attention in the market. Several traders and analysts warned that if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume normal passage within the next few weeks, Europe will face a risk of a diesel shortage, and regions such as Latin America are also expected to experience similar pressure.

The Strait’s chokepoint in the Middle East is blocked; Europe’s diesel gap is approaching

As a critical energy transportation route for the world, the Strait of Hormuz has seen a sharp reduction in ships in the wake of the Middle East conflict, with refined product transport corridors nearly shut down. While the movement of refined products such as diesel is hindered, tighter crude oil supply also forces refiners to proactively lower operating rates, further compressing refined product output.

In response to the supply gap, global traders have started redeploying diesel tankers that were originally destined for other regions. The transport distances have been significantly lengthened, operating costs have risen, and terminal prices have accordingly increased.

Europe is a net diesel-import region, and its domestic production capacity has long been unable to meet consumption, making it highly dependent on external supply. Previously, diesel cargoes from the Middle East were an important supplementary source, but this channel is now almost cut off.

Several traders and analysts said that if the strait remains blocked, the European market may face a substantive diesel shortage within weeks, and Latin America will also likely bear similar pressure. As a core fuel that drives industry, logistics, and agriculture, sustained increases in diesel prices may directly transmit to the real economy.

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