Hexun Investment Advisor Liu Changsong: If there is a decline on Friday, fear can be managed by reducing positions and buying the dip.

On April 2, Liu Changsong, an advisor at Hexun, said that A-shares fell on decreasing volume; the Shanghai Composite Index was down 0.74%, the average share price index was down 1.83%, and the “losing money effect” was obvious. Throughout the day, 4,378 stocks were waiting to rise, which made people feel uncomfortable. In the recent period, the market has been in a sideways range; it is suitable for “sell the highs and buy the lows.” When others are fearful, buy the lows; when others are greedy, sell the highs.

Judging from the intraday performance of A-shares, the 5-day moving average is worth paying attention to. After breaking above the 10-day moving average during the session, it closed at 5-day moving average 3919 points, and the close was also at this level, indicating strong control. The day saw decreased volume of 1.858 trillion yuan in trading value, with volume relatively small; the market fell more, suggesting that the buy-in and support below are not strong. This is mainly influenced by the pre-holiday effect: many large funds are worried about interference from overseas factors during the holiday.

If tomorrow is down and you test lower, when everyone is fearful you can control your position and buy the dip. Position control is because, from the time-cycle perspective, next Tuesday is the time-cycle node. The downward-moving 10-day moving average will be tested repeatedly; next week is expected to turn and provide support for the index. Today, the market broke above the 10-day moving average during the session and closed at the 5-day moving average 3919 points. If tomorrow breaks below the 10-day moving average again, you can buy the dip, but you need to keep your position size controlled. Buying the dip again when the market retests on next week’s opening is also an opportunity.

From a technical-structure perspective, on the 30-minute timeframe, as long as there is a golden cross, there will be a rebound; if there is no golden cross, it will only repair to around 20. On the 15-minute timeframe, there may be a double golden cross, but it depends on whether tomorrow’s price levels can hold. If it cannot hold, the structure will become more complex. In terms of the larger structure, on the daily timeframe, without an effective double golden cross, it is a sideways market—this is the situation for the Shanghai Composite.

The Shenzhen Index fell 1.6%. Its structure is similar to the Shanghai Composite: the 30-minute timeframe repairs to around 20, and the 60-minute timeframe is also expected to repair to around 20 tomorrow. So tomorrow, controlling position size allows for buying the dip. Position control is because during the holiday period there is event-driven uncertainty, and all indices on the daily timeframe still show a double-dead pattern; there is no need to gamble.

The ChiNext Index broke below the previous low today, making it relatively weaker; the STAR Market 50 Index did not break below yesterday’s low. Today it is close to that level, but the close did not break it. Different indices can move in different directions. The rhythm of a double golden cross at a low level on the daily timeframe will be smoother; without a double golden cross, the trend will be relatively more tangled.

(责任编辑：崔晨 HX015)

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