Market News丨Oil prices surge back above 100 yuan level, causing losses across stock markets nationwide

Although U.S. President Trump said the U.S. would wait until the Strait of Hormuz reopened before ceasing fire, markets still anticipate that the Iran war is nearing its end. After the U.S. stock market surged by more than 1,000 points at Tuesday’s close, it continued to rebound on Wednesday. The Dow closed up 224 points, or 0.48%, at 46,565; the S&P rose 46 points, or 0.72%, to 6,575; the Nasdaq gained 1.16% to 21,840. In the overnight session, New York crude oil once fell 4.81% to a low of $96.5 per barrel. Markets still focused on Trump’s speech on the Iran war this morning at 9:00 Hong Kong time. After he delivered the remarks, New York crude oil rebounded to $105. This was mainly because the plan had not given a clear troop withdrawal date, so the market again worries that the fighting may be difficult to end in the short term, oil supplies will not return to normal that quickly, and oil prices naturally rise again.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Dimon told Fox News that the U.S. must permanently eliminate any threats from Iran. If the goal cannot be met, both the market and the global economy would be easily affected. He also said everyone hopes the Strait of Hormuz shipping route will be clear and unobstructed. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo lowered its S&P 500 target for the end of this year from 7,800 to 7,300, citing that the Iran war has already caused damage to the economy and markets, limiting the potential upside of U.S. stocks. The target price implies only about a 12% increase versus Tuesday’s close.

As for U.S. stocks last night, although they continued to rebound, this morning Trump has been stirring things up, and many shares saw another drop after-hours. Plus, with a U.S. stock market holiday tomorrow, many people are inclined to reduce holdings and cut risk. The NQ (Nasdaq 100) in the Asian session also kept sliding one-way, falling from the 24,200 level all the way to 23,800 for now. It looks like before the holiday, it’s still best to be a bit cautious. Yesterday, when ALAB and ONDS opened, they weren’t at their buy levels, so there was no bargain hunting. Now looking back at after-hours, both stocks have already reached their buy levels. But since Trump talked a bit, it’s better to wait and see for tonight. Tonight, the NQ bulls-and-bears line is 23,800. Support is 23,700/23,600, while resistance is 23,900/24,000/24,100/24,200. We expect some support at 23,600. Actually, after Trump’s speech this morning, the NQ fell about 400 points from 24,200 to 23,800. We expect support near 23,600 as well. As for the rebound, 24,000 may already be resistance. If it cannot get back above 24,350, and as long as the 20-day line does not stand back in place, the NQ remains tilted bearish.

Local stock markets got off to a good start at the beginning of the second quarter of 2026. With hopes that Middle East hostilities may cool, Hong Kong stocks yesterday opened with a gap up of 569 points, then once rose 641 points to a high of 25,429. However, the 20-day line, around 25,372, failed to hold. The market closed for the day at 25,294, up 505 points, or 2.04%, with turnover of HK$291.4 billion. Given the long holiday drawing near, turnover of nearly HK$300 billion is already quite solid. Although Middle East fighting may ease and oil prices had fallen to below $100, to restore normal supply, the Strait of Hormuz must be completely open to navigation. We expect it will still take some time. For now, oil prices remain at high levels, posing a threat to inflation.

After the U.S. stock market’s retaliatory rebound on Tuesday, the rally continued yesterday. But at exactly 9:00 this morning Hong Kong time, Trump will deliver a nationwide address on the U.S.-Iran conflict, bringing markets around the world another burst of momentum—because Trump not only did not clearly state a troop withdrawal timeframe, but also said he would bomb Iran again for a while. The market is worried that Iran and oil-related facilities across the entire Middle East could be destroyed, which would seriously affect oil supply. If so, getting back the Strait of Hormuz would be useless. Once oil prices stay high, it will inevitably have a negative impact on the global economy.

The Hang Seng Index opened down 39 points. As Trump’s remarks continued, the decline widened. It failed to hold above the 250 level and even fell back below the 250-day moving average. If, in the afternoon, it tests the 5-day and 10-day lines again, around 25,900 to 25,950, and if it loses 24,900 again, the downward momentum may intensify. The Hang Seng Index needs to hold the 20-day line and break above the top of the descending channel formed by extending the January highs to fully get out of danger. In the short term, the first support is around the 250-day line at 25,100 to 25,150. Below that, supports are 24,950 to 25,000 / 24,800 / 24,500. On resistance, the first resistance overhead is 25,500 / 25,600 / 25,700, while resistance at 25,800 / 26,000 is even stronger. As for the broader market to regain an upward trend, it needs to repair all moving averages—meaning it must return to the 50-day and 100-day lines. That requires breaking above the 26,200 resistance as well, which is also the current daily Bollinger + channel top. Only then is there a chance to resume the uptrend.

Macdwin

(Andrew Huy, licensed by the SFC)