4.2 Subjective Cycle Review Post: The 8th Round of Genuine Commitment Rebound. Time to get the medicine, Cheke, let's cause some chaos. Crazy stuff coming through.

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$1

The broader market

1.8w 亿 (1.8 billion yuan)—is it due to the pre-holiday effect already?

A low-volume rebound playing around—no-volume even when falling also counts as playing around.

The ChiNext is already basically hit here in this move—the low point on the left side.

Shenzhen is also quite weak

Shanghai almost broke 3909 this afternoon. If it breaks this cost-support level,

then it’s easy to directly retrace back to the prior low on the left side.

Good thing it got back above it at the close.

So here, the sideways consolidation structure is still maintained

leaving expectations for a repair tomorrow.

I feel this is the paradise for “Golden Hair” (金毛) and quants.

When quant trading is most likely to outperform the market, it’s actually during consolidation.

In a downturn structure they also lose money; in an up structure everyone makes money.

Only in the consolidation structure do quants make money.

Big brother, a bag of rice—how many floors exactly do you want to resist at?

Emotion is emotion

The emotion cycle is the emotion cycle
**
Theme cycle is the theme cycle**

Emotion is emotion

On Monday: 62 limit-ups, 10 limit-downs; faces (i.e., situations) 3 stocks with consecutive limit-ups, 12 large boards (over 10% red) out of 17.

Board failures: 17 touched limit-down; red-count stocks 2805; overall 56; market volume 19159; board-failure rate 21%.

Top 20 by volume: 0.22% 9 red; highest成交 (trade value) Zhongji Exchuang -1.49% 122亿.

On Tuesday: 53 limit-ups, 1 limit-down; faces 5 stocks with consecutive limit-ups, 8 large boards (over 10% red) out of 17.

Board failures: 17 touched limit-down 8; red-count stocks 903; overall 35; market volume 19992; board-failure rate 24%.

Top 20 by volume: -3.58% 1 red; highest成交 Zhongji Exchuang -3.34% 149亿.

On Wednesday: 56 limit-ups, 6 limit-downs; faces 8 stocks with consecutive limit-ups, 5 large boards (over 10% red) out of 51.

Board failures: 38 touched limit-down 13; red-count stocks 4228; overall 61; market volume 20125; board-failure rate 40%.

Top 20 by volume: 0.51% 11 red; highest成交 Yangguang Power -10.8% 225亿.

On Thursday: 27 limit-ups, 5 limit-downs; faces 1 consecutive limit-up, 5 large boards (over 10% red) out of 15.

Board failures: 18 touched limit-down 17; red-count stocks 893; overall 31; market volume 18430; board-failure rate 40%.

Top 20 by volume: -2.2% 11 red; highest成交 Yangguang Power -5% 146亿.

Thursday single day:

Making money effect—weak disagreement

Making money effect—consecutive limit-ups distorted

Pharmaceuticals and “my war” related

Oversold rebound patterns at low levels

Bubble-grouping discernibility

Losing money effect

Trend-driven bull run toward new highs on the right side

Technology themes positively correlated with the broader market

Tomorrow continue with repair, and also with resolution of disagreement—both are possible.

Emotion cycle is the emotion cycle

**

**

After the sell-off, the chaotic period rebound—
is the over-extension before the new weekly cycle starts.

Looking at today from today’s perspective, it’s still a chaotic structure.

Here, consolidating along the upper band of this box is really uncomfortable.

Either break above it to start a main uptrend,

or pull back to the lower band of the box. No matter whether it can V-rebound again and start a new main uptrend,

at least when it reaches the lower band there’s at least an expectation of a rebound.

This “stuck-in-the-middle” torture is unbearable.

Theme cycle

Theme strength

**

**

The strongest theme intraday: Pharmaceuticals 50490
Strongest sub-theme intraday: Innovative drugs 2974

Type A: Theme cycle unifies the whole river and lake, dominates the whole arena (commercial aerospace, across-the-Taiwan-Straits)

This kind of cycle doesn’t need to analyze other themes. Just do what the leader does, and what follows as additions in the main line. Look at the main line only—if you look at other lines, it’s a sin.

Type B: Theme cycle—multiple themes in parallel, chaos like “breaking horses and shooting arrows,” overturning fate (26th year first quarter MY war)

In this kind of cycle there’s no absolute main line. But each line has its own recognizability and low-level follow-up pullbacks can still keep pace.

Right now it’s still a B-type cycle

Testing a new cycle—run multiple themes in parallel
**
Old cycle: dying but not stiff—multiple themes**

Today, switching viewpoints to sort things out—everything is down to looking like grandma’s condition. I guess you also don’t like hearing how the cycle is divided.

Here it’s divided into themes that are absolutely positively correlated with the broader market
**
That is big technology.**

They need full resonance with the broader market moving upward in order to ferment.

Divide it into overseas computing power and domestic computing power.

Lithium battery solid-state batteries and commercial aerospace also count in this direction.

In other words, if the broader market wants to move up, it needs a carrier—no matter whether the macro environment is good or bad,

you need a theme to drag the broader market upward.

These themes historically have all resonated with the broader market moving up, especially overseas computing power.

On Wednesday, the broader market filled the gap; and as geopolitical calming messages appeared, the whole market rebounded.

So do funds want to play a full reversal? No. If they wanted to, they should use the highest, strongest varieties to expand the heights.

Theming about Demingli Storage (semiconductors direction) got pressed down.

FiberHome Technologies—this is the overseas-sector leader. It lagged yesterday’s rise. That’s not right.

So the broader market doesn’t want to attack upward.

Instead, it’s pharmaceuticals resonating with the broader market’s rise.

A lot of people here have misunderstood this round of pharma.

Pharmaceuticals and alcohol really do have a defensive attribute. When the broader market falls, you drink alcohol and eat medicine—you have that impression.

But starting a business and going overseas is a different thing. Plus, aggressive themes and big technology are the same story.

Last April to August, that wave of chasing Core? (舒泰神) was “innovative drugs going overseas.”

This time they added new jargon and want to chase another round: innovative drug BD.

Innovative drug BD = Business Development (business development / business expansion),
is a core strategic action where pharmaceutical companies use external transactions such as licensing, cooperation, and M&A to integrate R&D, capital, and market resources.

Core purpose (why do BD)

• Fill the pipeline: quickly obtain new drugs/technology without doing all in-house R&D

• Manage risk: R&D burns money with a high failure rate—share risks via partnerships

• Monetize: license out self-developed results and exchange for cash flow

• Go overseas: borrow big pharma channels to sell drugs globally

The essence of this pharma round is what funds are chasing during the Q1 report window. They want to chase too, but they’re afraid of taking a hit; they think innovative-drug stocks have performance guarantees.

This is just like repeatedly chasing overseas computing power. At least there’s no expectation of a performance blow-up.

Does commercial aerospace have performance? Do lithium batteries have performance? For these, on the local raw-material upstream there actually is.

Do domestic computing power “AI applications” have performance? This one really doesn’t.

So there’s no good money.

Second, the chips for innovative drugs are all in the hands of institutions. Retail investors cut their losses during the innovative drug decline last August and can’t get what’s available today.

Third, the two waves of innovative drug with “over w strength” had broad-market-day big bullish candles.

So this round of innovative drugs is also an attack-type theme that resonates with the broader market.

A completely defensive theme

That is inverse-index (moving opposite to the market) products—
the direction where when the broader market falls, it keeps rising more.

Bulk chemicals, petrochemicals—oil, natural gas, grains, and agriculture/forestry/animal husbandry and fisheries.

With only a falling broad market, that’s when funds would go look at this.

Today crude oil futures surged; with geopolitical pessimism, they became active again.

But it’s all quant-driven—there are very few “whales” and few real living participants inside.

The broader market is down to looking like grandma’s condition—would there be money to go long this?

No. All are first-board trades for arbitrage: 6 oil & natural-gas related + 2 agriculture.

Midway themes

Electric power—this direction was great at the start for both catching opportunities on either side (left or right).

If you classify it by energy bulk it counts, and if you classify it by technology it also counts as a foundation. So

early on it was the best direction in terms of rhythm.

But after the decline wave started from downtrend 2, funds stopped liking doing follow-up gains in it.

The linking rhythm with high-level leader stocks also became worse.

In theory, the 5th round of follow-up gains is fermenting today—there should be 4 power stocks.

It should reverse-affirm the leader: Yu Energy Holding should show a rebound from downtrend 2. But Yu Energy Holding keeps falling.

Use electric power to anchor

**

**

Let’s see during the rebound of these 8 days—who truly separated out.

Communication overseas computing power isn’t good—because internal sub-segment rotations happen, and fiber optics is the one with the most sustained momentum.

But recently: Changfei, Farsun, Hangdian Shares as representatives became a “bubble-group.”

Changfei is the most obvious: when the sector dropped hard, it rose hard; when the sector rallied hard, it just went sideways.

Domestic computing power—dog-not-interest (狗不理). Yesterday’s last effort still got understood by the market as arbitrage of “Hong Kong stocks 10x times” (Zhipu).

Lithium batteries—the rhythm was a bit off; they tried, but after the climax strength exceeded 1w+ it couldn’t transition to Stage 2.

Commercial aerospace is the one that most wants to secure a spot. It tries to outmaneuver electric power, but it got completely crushed when electric power started. However, the core—Divine Sword and Re-rise—couldn’t lead the team either, so it wasn’t enough.

Pharma pharma, chik-chik-no—only pharma achieved effective separation
**
There was once a celebrity who said: When you rule out every impossible scenario, whatever remains—even if it seems difficult to believe—is still a fact.**

Here, there’s a probability that pharmaceuticals is for the 26th year’s second quarter’s one-cycle

One cycle’s fate is always tricky—it will definitely move like a dog chewing—plus the personal experience feels bad, and the height expectations aren’t high.

Most likely it won’t play out into last April to August’s crazy行情 that was that impressive for Shutai Shen.

Once we enter the second cycle, we can’t rule out needing to change logic. At the same time, where the sentiment is better,

because by then, even if MY war isn’t said to be over, the impact on financial markets should be not that big anymore.

Like Russia-Ukraine—didn’t it also last three years? It’s already the fourth year now, right?

It was originally a proxy war. They YY’d that it would be fought by proxies, but they didn’t expect m to personally enter the arena—yet they’re still fighting this kind of B style.

This world really is a “makeshift troupe.”

For pharmaceuticals here, the way it’s moving feels like a trend-driven main uptrend.

It’s totally different from the “sentiment-driven main uptrend” that we’re familiar with.

Jin Yao Pharmaceutical (津药药业) — a one-character board (letter/one-word limit).

Low-level Zhongyao Holding (重药控股) — also a one-character board.

Large-cap arbitrage: Okin? (欧康医药) 30cm.

By rights, high-level recognizability should directly turn strong.

But regardless—Wanbangde, or Meinouhua (美诺华)—

none of them actively turned strong. Meinouhua was pushed by the sector.

Here, the anchoring individual stocks are different.

Divided by sentiment versus divided by trend—different conclusions.

If you use Meinouhua to categorize, then actually here they can all be considered as preparing to enter a third stage.

Anyway, it’s using the same framework of sentiment cycle division—it’s just very awkward.

Like at the time of commercial aerospace—on 11.24 when it started that wave—you couldn’t draw the boundaries clearly,

because it was moving along a trend-driven main uptrend.

Tomorrow the broader market will need to see whether it repairs.

Then is it about whether the most “anti-drawdown” name that’s positively correlated—does pharmaceuticals actively lead the gains?

At the close, funds started grabbing pharma shares first: Jimin Health, Shuanglu Pharmaceutical.

This isn’t because they expect the broad market to keep falling tomorrow.

It’s because they expect the broad market to rise tomorrow.

If tomorrow is judged as repair, then okay. If not, and instead there’s rotation into other types again, it becomes even harder here.

We can’t rule out it truly going through a “pullback to the retreat/sell-off phase.”

Summary

Sentiment anchors: even though the profit-making effect is weak disagreement, the sentiment itself is very bad.

Tomorrow, the sentiment anchor is still Jinyao Pharmaceutical (津药药业).

Sentiment cycle: currently retreat phase 3, rebound is on day 8.

The rebound hasn’t ended. The expectation for a pullback is still there.

Theme cycle: old cycle—exclude all the rest, leave only “Guang.”

They’re all in the retreat decline from downtrend 2.

They’ve started slowly exiting the historical stage.

Milestones

03.24

Effective, but not the best node.

Meinouhua: disagreement leads to a broken board, but the trend hasn’t been damaged.

Xinneng Taishan: limit-down. Thought it was dead—yet today it’s alive again. You think you’re Master Chef (食神)?

Aouride: can keep bouncing around. A lot is related to the fact that it started at this node 03.24. Today, when counting within computing power, it resisted best.

Wanbangde: tomorrow 5.53% abnormal movement. This stock, anyway, isn’t about consecutive limit-ups. Earlier in the morning I said: Jinyao one-word limit—do a low buy when it pulls back to the 3-day moving line.

Very steady. It’s just that it restricts my ability to monitor.

Shuhua Sports: it was already named last night at the close (boarded/flagged). Today it still maintains the trend.

Xinghui Huan? (星辉环材): it’s really stronger than a motorcycle.

Changfei Optic Fiber: this “handsome eyebrows” also plays bubble-grouping.

Farsun and Guosheng Technology also have shadows of “one person, one city.”

**
Quantitative era**

When it comes to being objective, quant trading can’t be beaten; the only thing that can beat quant trading is people’s subjectivity.
**
My subjectivity is**

In the chaos phase: make expectations, don’t chase by turning expectations into follow-through,
Don’t do “stronger and stronger.”

Do less “weak turning into strong.”

Do more low buys during disagreement when momentum is fading and exhausting.

Right now, either do the front-runner of the strongest intraday theme—rotation is fine too.

Honestly, if today hadn’t had Golden Hair (金毛) making that speech, then yesterday—no matter whether it was computing power, Meiliyun, or Aouride—should have had a calm and dignified exit time.

Or else it means: whether the broader market goes up or down is irrelevant to these independent bubble-population popularity names. Just keep holding—until it breaks apart.

Tomorrow’s “back-up” is actually a game around the geopolitical expectation on 4/7—
it’s basically betting on those festival days: will they fight even harder,
or will it ease, where ending is hard.

Key stock commentary

Meinouhua

Almost death—hands brought it back: 59%+
No big problem. As long as tomorrow pharma ferments.
Worst case should be the 03.19 of Jinkai Xinneng.

Non-key stock commentary
**
Lino? Pharma package**

It’s all quant trading.

This one completely depends on how the sector looks.

If you want to study deeply, you can go to the blogger’s homepage to look.

Below are a lot of publicly available learning-content articles (dry goods).

Dry Goods Collection (a large collection of dry-goods articles) directory

https://www.tgb.cn/a/1RHLtZQLAfB
A historical review of the sentiment cycle—learn from history and know the rise and fall—directory

https://www.tgb.cn/a/1RHLnbweBJA
Sentiment cycle video explanation—watching it, everyone says it’s good. Or you should also check it?

https://www.tgb.cn/a/22nLmcWyh3R

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(Investing involves risk. Trading requires caution. Plans can never keep up with changes. Everything follows the market. The content of the article is my personal thinking and record for everyone,
I record my understanding of the market for personal sharing only, and it does not constitute any investment advice. For reference only—any buying and selling based on it is your own risk and profit/loss.)