Trump wants a quick victory to crush Iran, and Gulf countries fear being dragged into a long-term crisis.

**Tonghui Finance APP News—**If US President Trump abruptly ends the war against Iran without reaching a clear agreement, it may not only fail to dismantle Iran’s theocratic system, but could also further enhance Iran’s strategic influence in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the Gulf Arab oil and natural gas producing countries would have to bear the heavy consequences of this conflict for the long term.

Trump hints the war could end soon, but lacks follow-up guarantees

On Wednesday, Trump said in an interview that the United States would “end” its war against Iran “very soon.” He also hinted on Tuesday that, even without a formal agreement, he might end the conflict within a few weeks.

However, analysts are generally concerned that ending it in a rush without clear follow-up security guarantees will give Iran a clear advantage and pose a major long-term threat to the entire Gulf region.

Iran may feel more confident; Gulf countries worry about paying a steep price

In this conflict that has lasted for several weeks, Iran has successfully withstood the intensive attacks by the United States and Israel, carried out retaliatory strikes against Gulf Arab countries, and imposed a substantial blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, significantly shaking global energy markets. These gains give the Iranian regime more confidence.

Mohammed Baharoon, director of the Dubai Bhuth Research Center, said: “The problem is ending the war without real results. He (Trump) may stop the war, but that doesn’t mean Iran will stop.” He added that as long as US forces continue to be stationed at military bases in the Gulf region, Iran will continue to pose a persistent threat to the region.

This kind of imbalance in power is exactly what Gulf countries are most worried about. After the war, Iran may not only fail to lose influence but even gain more—able to continue to threaten shipping lanes, energy flows, and regional stability—while Gulf countries alone would have to bear the economic losses and strategic risks caused by the conflict.

Mohammed Baharoon further pointed out that a weakening of freedom of navigation in the Middle East region would become a major concern for Gulf countries. Iran may begin to frequently use the “territorial waters card” and set rules favorable to itself in the Strait of Hormuz, which serves as the lifeline for global energy supply. He said: “This has gone beyond the scope of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has reached out to the critical areas of the global economy.” Iran’s ability to disrupt energy flows also sends a clear signal that any attempt to attack Iran in the future must be carefully considered.

Fundamental misjudgment heightens risk; Iran may become even angrier and more hardline

Political analysts say that after the United States and Israel carried out unprecedented strikes against Iran’s leadership, they made a fundamental misjudgment about Iran’s likely response, which in turn increases the risk of further escalation.

Fawaz Gerges, a scholar on Middle East issues, said: “In one move, Trump and Netanyahu turned a geopolitical conflict into a conflict of religion and civilization. They elevated Khamenei from a controversial ruler to a martyr.”

Regional analysts believe that the assumption that removing the top leader would cause Iran’s system to collapse seriously ignores Iran’s multi-layered institutional structure, parallel power structure, and its long-standing resilience. The result is not Iran’s surrender, but rather the triggering of radicalization—creating a more furious, more defiant Iran—and forcing the entire region to endure the aftermath of the war.

Iran’s “oil weapon” and asymmetric retaliation capability are being underestimated

Political analysts in the Middle East say the United States has clearly underestimated Iran’s ability to carry out asymmetric retaliation. Iran does not need to win on conventional battlefields; it only needs to make the other side pay a heavy price. For decades, Iran has been working to find pressure points on its opponents rather than pursuing equal military force, gradually treating energy assets and the Strait of Hormuz as the core of its strategy.

By striking energy infrastructure and threatening the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has successfully pushed global oil prices higher, fueled inflationary pressure, and shifted the economic burden onto the United States and its allies. Analysts believe Iran’s goal is not to win battlefield victory, but to force its opponent into economic困境.

Gulf countries face long-term vulnerability; Iran’s global retaliation network still exists

If the war is ended too early without sufficient security guarantees, Gulf countries will be left in a state of inadequate protection, and any future retaliatory actions by Iran may no longer be confined to the region.

Iran still has the capability to activate its long-established global network, using channels built over decades to strike the interests of Israel, the United States, and their allies far away from the battlefield.

Terrorism expert Magnus Ranstorp said: “They haven’t started full-scale action yet, but they have immense ability to punish the United States and Israel.” He likened Iran to a Hydra-like threat, with its tentacles able to reach distant areas beyond the Middle East.

Regional analysts generally believe Iran’s theocratic system will endure, that there will be no fundamental shift in the balance of regional power, and that Iran in the Middle East will be regarded as more dangerous than ever before.

In summary, Trump’s intention to quickly end the war with Iran may ease some tensions in the short term, but without a clear agreement and follow-up guarantees, this conflict is likely to backfire. Iran will not only fail to be knocked down; it may instead regain its footing with an even stronger posture, while Gulf countries will have no choice but to face the harsh reality for the long term—energy security under threat, high economic costs, and damage to regional stability.

As for how the Middle East situation will develop in the future, it is still necessary to closely monitor the subsequent actions of all parties and the progress of negotiations.

(Editor: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)

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